I will be shorting NIO for the next 2-3 weeks starting Monday morning. Current momentum and sentiment are very bearish in the short term, so a retest to $38 seems inevitable. If NIO cannot hold $38, we can start to see the low 30s, but hopefully not much lower than that as I do like this company for the long term. In terms of technicals, there is a head and shoulders pattern forming + daily and especially weekly RSI is oversold.
However, whatever happens in the next few weeks I believe it will simply be a continuation of a healthy pullback. The stock has run up over 1650% in the past year alone, aided by China-US tensions, and rumors of delisting of many Chinese companies from NYSE. A sell-off was to be expected.
The one thing that I am mainly concerned with is that NIO is getting audited by PWC's Chinese sector. Also, the majority of analysts covering NIO is from every big bank's Chinese sector. This can be very deceptive to retail investors. So all I ask is for everyone to be extremely cautious.
Long term, my gut tells me this will all pass, however, I will be extremely cautious and be on the constant lookout for any potential fraud in the company.