Potential bull trap. The stock is over extended while the rest of the market trends lower. Ceiling penetrated but perhaps buyers will dry up at this level
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Price of Nio at time of writing $28.47. High potentially reached @ $29.20. expecting a retest of top of trend. Play by ear. The origional trade idea was too pessimistic and expecting too large a swing in too short a time. If the trend breaks down I will expect a 20-25% move down in the next 10 days. My new target is $22 by end of month.
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Stop loss now id $29.50 or options put trade. Theoretically, that would be a 1:5.5 risk reward, if 100% the target price were to be achieved.
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its make or break now at at $27.73
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Trending down. looking good for this idea. Breaking down, Happy days
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Descending pendant formed. showing strength again from 27:30. will it break out to the upside? wait and see. If it breaks out, it could rip higher. caution here
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a trip lower again it goes.
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Coming to the end of the formation. This is going either way with a relatively big move in the next 30 mins. 3-4% I would hazard the guess.
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This game is more than being right bidirectionally. It's about getting your costs and expectations correct, so you make more money when you win, than you loose when you're wrong. Longer term targets are usually better. day trading, catches you out on an accumulation of fees, no matter how small the spreads and commissions are.
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looks like this is gonna shoot up now. Profits taking is good at this point in my opinion
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Next Move: pre-market Nio has gone back to the high of $29.34. Again, this might be a double top. Short with stop would be good here, but I would play it with options. In my opinion, a 6 week option play, buying puts strike ATM and selling the same amount of puts at around strike of $22. Being quick to unwind it at the lower end if there is still substantial time on the option. This covered put strategy keeps costs low and limits losses if it shoots higher. I would probably sell the bough puts if it went away from me a little above $30 and then re-buy the $22 contracts. Not financial Advice. I like options, cos you don't get stopped out.
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Slow trend lower. $22 by end of the month unlikely now. Moves haven't been hard enough. $26 at time of writing.
Reminds me of that Foo Fighters song... You know you make me break out... $33 target and rising. I remember reading Deutsche bank have a target buy price of $50. It may never see $22 again. $26 is the new floor. I reckon it will go higher nearing $40 pre election. Then the dump back down to $26 as people pull out and move money into American stocks.
Rod_85
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@mohsenmn, I agree with you. A trader has to reassess
Bigfibber
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@Rod_85, It's a constant battle my friend. As soon as I wrote this I hovered my finger over the sell button for a little too long! Have faith. I'm going to set some autos at 40 and 50 just in case my finger doesn't decide to push the button when it does get there!