Updated

Nike is reaching trough lands soon ! Or not & W crash more !

61% Retracement from all time low "IPO" to "ATH" is in the 60ish region. MKTS permitting & unless we are about to crash just like 1929 as some Elliottsions suggest then we are about to have a trough in Q1/Q2 of 2025 .!

Trade active

Touched 70% and bounced !!! What's next ?

Trade closed: target reached

Updating

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Updating...

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Updating relative to SPX... How far can we go down, or this is it !!!

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Updating...

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Vs 3Ms chart ...

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Updating... VERY VERY INTERESTING TIME FOR NKE !!!!!

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MACD...

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High volume here, what's happing ?

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Hitting both lines of the channel on the same month ?

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Lowest reading for the RSI EVER !!!

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Retesting our new line in Orange that we formed 2 Month ago ?

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Bottom of 4.5 Hurst's Cycles !!!

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Lowest on the Could !!!

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MACD Like never before ever....

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zoomed in...

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CC with SPX AND XLY lowest ever on both ...!!!

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High volume at trough or close to one...!!!!

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Had to draw it because it looks like something is happing !!!

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i do not have cash to deploy here, our defense stocks are in Red, in NIKE and i missed this last year as well "But" if i have i would go deep into this again looks like it's about to have another trough Q1-Q2 of 2026 Or not ?

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4th Highest volume's average ever !

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Everything here is implying a trough in progress!

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Removed some of our old drawings...

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Big move incoming by
A. False breakdown 50s
B. This is wave 2, going up in wave 3 up
C. this analysis is wrong.

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Wave C is reached 81% of wave A

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CC With SPX is the lowest ever (Just like our stocks which are still in Red) = This could be it or we go down further and break below 50 !

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MFI lowest ever... Nike keeps pushing, technically, the probability of a bullish move coming soon !
The question is how far are we going down.

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Big move is close by or not ?

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Orange is holding...Its our latest line of defense.

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4.5 &9 Years cycles are all in already !!!

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If we go below 52 and stay above 48 (All else absolute) then this would/could/might be a generational opportunity !

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If would be one big Bear trap !

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Google AI...

" For the full year 2025, the average stock price for Nike (NKE) was approximately $68.42.
The stock experienced significant volatility throughout the year, reaching a 12-month high of $81.95 on February 25, 2025, before hitting a 12-month low of $52.28 on April 10, 2025. Despite these fluctuations, the share price saw a partial recovery in the second half of the year following the announcement of leadership changes and a renewed focus on innovation. "

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Google AI:

" 2026 Price Forecast Range
Analysts' price targets for the next 12 months vary significantly based on their outlook for Nike's turnaround strategy:
Average Target: $74.61 to $76.00.
High Estimate: Up to $115.00 – $120.00, supported by firms like Jefferies and BTIG who see a recovery in wholesale and innovation cycles.
Low Estimate: As low as $35.00 – $38.00, primarily from analysts concerned about severe margin erosion and competition.
Monthly Price Projections (Calendar 2026)
Short-term technical models suggest the stock will trade within a horizontal trend between $58.57 and $67.55 through the first half of the year "

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120-38 That's one hell of a gap do not you think so ?!! It's like stay the hell out of this stock ;-)...

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Either way do not have cash to deploy here :-) I am 3 Reds one green on our Defense stocks

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Google AI:

" Institutional ownership of Nike (NKE) has experienced a slight downward trend over the past year, though it remains a heavily dominated institutional stock. As of February 2, 2026, institutional investors and hedge funds own approximately 64.25% of the company.
Recent data from late 2025 indicates a marginal decrease in holdings from 67.54% to 67.53%. This follows a more significant long-term decline from ownership levels that exceeded 83% in some historical reports.
Key Ownership Trends
Net Inflows vs. Outflows: Over the last 12 months, there have been $18.30 billion in institutional inflows compared to $10.14 billion in outflows.
Top Institutional Holders: Vanguard Group Inc. increased its position by 1.5% as of December 31, 2025, holding roughly 116.99 million shares (7.9% of the company).
Insider Activity: In contrast to institutional caution, company insiders have been buying. Insiders purchased 91,229 shares valued at approximately $5.45 million in the last quarter, with CEO Elliott Hill and Director Timothy D. Cook making notable purchases.
Hedge Fund Sentiment: Hedge funds currently do not hold a meaningful majority stake, with many analysts noting that the ownership structure is dominated by large index and mutual funds "

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Red resistance's line is all what is needed to watch Nike !

samitrading

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