timwest
Long

Nike NKE - Nearing Buy Level at 51 for return to 69 this year

NYSE:NKE   NIKE INC
1506 16 34
Nike             has been an investors best dream for many years now as it has compounded investor capital by double-digits for the past 10 and 20 years. Lately, however, NKE             is in a correction which has reached 22%, which is a very typical correction for this superstar stock.

Instead of waiting until the moment that NKE             has reached down to an ideal entry level at $51 or below to trigger, I am alerting you now to the price level so you can prepare yourself. You can use a host of techniques to get exposure to NKE             , but I'll leave a few suggestions and you can discuss with others.

What is the situation with NKE             now? Revenue growth is slowing on a percentage basis and this is troubling investors. You can see the "TOTAL REVENUE" line for NKE             and how it is steadily powering ahead, but on a percentage scale it is growing much slower than it used to. Look at 2012 where revenues were up 18%, then on to 2013 where they were up only 9%. In 2014 revenues grew by nearly 12% and then in 2015 dropped to a much slower gain of 7%. Revenue growth is the fuel the fires the spirits of investors and fears of global recession seem to be winning the argument lately.

On the positive side - NKE's "AFTER TAX MARGINS" are at their highest level in the data series we get here at TradingView. A/T Margins have creeped up to nearly 12% which is a powerful driver of investment performance.

Free-cash-flow is not supporting the price of NKE             stock here because it peaked out at 2.86 Billion in the first quarter of 2015 and has since dropped back down to 1.12 Billion, which is a low return if you owned the company outright (at a level of 2.3 x 32 B in revenues = $73+ Billion Mkt Cap). This is a minuscule return of 1.5% per year.

The current bear market for NKE             shares, which I am labeling because they are down more than 20% from the peak, is an opportunity to prepare yourself to buy shares at slightly lower levels.

Note the entry price, stop loss level, and target price I have given. I am looking for NKE             to return to the peak of $69+ by year-end for what would be a 30%+ return. I only recommend taking a loss of 10% in order to capture the upside potential at this time. If I can further pinpoint the entry on further setbacks then I will do my best.

Feel free to ask questions or shoot holes in my logic.

All the best,

Tim

NKE             53.45 last, 12:07AM June 6, 2016 Monday
Trade active: SPOT ON entry and working well so far.
Trade active: I exited temporarily on a short term advance to $59 this week, but plan to re-enter. The generally rich valuation compared to other, more attractively valued sectors like automobiles and airlines has me diverting funds to those sectors. Overall though, NKE is a great long term investment that is currently undervalued relative to its typical level. Stay posted.
Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $20/mo or a discount for a year and join in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
>> I exited temporarily on a short term advance to $59 this week

You posted above on 9/8/16, the price never reached 59 that week nor after that date!
Reply
Any updates on this idea, we have seen a nice pullback
Reply
Wild reaction on AH, should we re-enter?
Reply
What do you think Tim :)


snapshot
Reply
Dguaman Dguaman
is 55 a good price to re-enter? or which price are you waiting for? .. thanks !
Reply
B to C wave almost complete, and it took 12 days, down 6.78%. I'll watch for a C to D wave to start. Looking into October 60$ calls. Happy trading.
Reply
B to C wave almost complete, and it took 12 days, down 6.78%. I'll watch for a C to D wave to start. Looking into October 60$ calls. Happy trading.
Reply
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/061716/nikes-basketball-division-head-resigns-nke.asp
How will affect this @timwest ??
Reply
Good question, but I don't micro-analyze NKE. There are so many talented people in any large organization like NKE that any one person leaving isn't going to damage the brand.
Reply
Good question, but I don't micro-analyze NKE. There are so many talented people in any large organization like NKE that any one person leaving isn't going to damage the brand.
Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
Deutschland
France
España
Italia
Polska
Türkiye
Россия
Brasil
Indonesia
Malaysia
Việt Nam
日本
한국
简体
繁體
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Priority Support Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out