NNDM Macro Thesis (Monthly Structure)

Feb 11

Preface:
I’m publishing my NNDM thesis as a series. This first part is strictly a high-level monthly view focused on macro structure: the post–Kathy Wood pump, the 2021 dump, and the years-long “accumulation” phase that followed.

This chart is intentionally clean. On this timeframe, structure and value acceptance matter more than stacking indicators.

What’s On the Chart
1) Supply & Demand (SnD) Zones

Two major resistance zones from prior structure:

• $2.96 – $3.94
  
• $3.60 – $4.14
  

These zones define whether NNDM is reclaiming prior value or simply rotating inside a lower range.

2) Trading Channels

Two channels are shown:

• The channel from the 2022 Sell Climax (SC) through the March 2025 gap-down
  
• The lower channel formed after the March 2025 gap-down
  

These represent two distinct regimes:

1. the multi-year coil / range
   
2. the post-gap lower value area
   

SideNote:
On the monthly, the 0.114 Fibonacci retracement drawn from the last major high to the all-time low aligns with the centerline of the multi-year trading channel NNDM respected from Spring 2022 through Winter 2025.

That level sits at approximately $2.51. This level is more than just a fib level, it's also a fair value point.

3) Rounded Bottom Arc

I include an arc to illustrate the rounded base / bowl structure that developed as price shifted from macro distribution into macro accumulation behavior.

This arc begins with touches in spring/summer 2022 and continues forward, with newer touches aligning with the higher lows formed after the March 2025 regime break.

4) Anchored VWAP Corridors (Supply/Demand AVWAP Pairs)

I use two AVWAP corridor sets, each defining a supply/demand value band for its respective regime.

AVWAP Set #1 (2022 Range Birth)

• Demand AVWAP: 2022 SC low
  
• Supply AVWAP: 2022 AR high
  

This defines the value corridor of the 2022–2025 range.

AVWAP Set #2 (Regime Break)

• Supply AVWAP: Swing high before the March 2025 gap-down
  
• Demand AVWAP: Swing low after the gap-down
  

This defines the post-gap value corridor and highlights where price is currently attempting to reclaim.

AVWAP Color Coding (Chart Legend)

To keep the chart readable, I use consistent AVWAP color coding:

• Light Blue = Demand AVWAP
  
• Medium Brown = Supply AVWAP
  

This applies to both AVWAP corridor sets.

Why I’m Keeping the Chart Clean
I’m restricting drawings to channels, SnD zones, the arc, and AVWAP corridors because on this timeframe those are the only things that matter.

If price cannot:

1. hold the lower channel as support,
   
2. reclaim the prior channel,
   
3. and demonstrate acceptance above these AVWAP corridors,
   

…then additional indicators are irrelevant.

What Price Needs to Prove
1) Channel Acceptance

Price needs to demonstrate that:

• the lower channel is support, and
  
• it can move into the outer, inner, and midpoint areas of the former trading range channel.
  

If price fails to reclaim and accept the higher channel, the long-term structure remains bearish.

2) AVWAP Acceptance

Price must prove it can turn the supply/demand AVWAP corridors into support and resistance properly.

NNDM has historically rotated cleanly around value bands before repricing, so these corridors matter.

RSI Context (Macro Reality Check)

Even with:
Improving price action

Monthly RSI is rising

RSI remains in the bear zone

Historically, NNDM has not sustained a breakout of a bearish RSI regime outside of the January 2021 peak which was just a blip.

So despite recent strength, the macro momentum regime has not yet flipped.

Thesis: The Lower Channel is a Failed Spring

Part of my thesis is that the lower post-gap trading range was formed off a failed spring.

Wyckoff requires cause for markup. In my view, the spring event did not generate enough cause to sustain a meaningful markup phase, which is why the stock repriced lower and built a new range instead of launching.

Current Market State (2/10/2026)

Right now, NNDM is actively fighting to reclaim its former trading range.

Bullish evidence

Price is finding support on:

• the upper inner/outer boundaries of the lower channel
  
• the shorter-timeframe supply/demand AVWAP corridor
  

Bearish / resistance evidence

Price is encountering resistance at:

• the inner and outer boundaries of the former range (lower section)
  
• the longer-timeframe supply AVWAP corridor
  

There is still time left in the month, and current candles show bullish wicks, but I’m not treating this as confirmation yet.

Bullish Confirmation first step:

Until I see:

1. a weekly candle close inside the former upper trading range
   
2. followed by
   
3. another weekly candle that opens and closes inside that range,
   

…I remain neutral on whether a true bullish regime flip is potentially occurring.

Feb 11

Note

While preparing the next part of this series, I flipped to a 6-month chart and noticed a clear long-term descending channel has been respected since Summer 2021 (with only minor wick exceptions in 2022).

I also noticed the $2.51 level (macro fib 0.114) is not just a fib level — it has repeatedly acted as a long-term regime pivot / equilibrium line. Pre-pump, the second half of 2019 closed almost exactly on $2.51, followed by a massive 6-month doji in H1 2020 with an extreme volume expansion. That was then followed by the H2 2020 repricing candle that launched the stock into the 2020–2021 mania phase.

Post-2021, $2.51 became relevant again in H1 2022, where price formed a hammer with the body mostly above it, followed by a multi-candle battle around the level. After that, NNDM began opening and closing below $2.51, and it has not opened above that level since.

I’ll publish the 6-month chart breakdown separately, since it adds important context to the entire 2022–2025 range.
Just know this.
The most important number for NNDM right now is $2.51