The technical bounce basically came off Fib Level .618 and the 200 Day MA. Fed Day and 1 Overnight 200 point move was the bulk of the move. This is the 6th major direction change since the July YTD High. Since July the the average drop has been 7.9% over 13 days and average lift, 8.5% over 14 days (current price from bounce). Level 15169 is my current Turn Zone (Red Line) and 15506 is upper max turn zone. The 5 year daily chart has the yellow vertical line at 11/1 and the year end moves vary. This rally may be early and can stall/drop like 2022. Triangle is Long inside and Short at rejection. Thick Yellow is the level to watch and major resistance. The NAZ is above 50 MA 14947, 100 MA 14827 and 200 MA 14300.
Chart (current channel/range)
I will leave this open until year end and will update at major key levels. No Fed No Rally and BTD/FOMO Forever, Trade Well.
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Regarding intraday trading the next 2 months, you may want to use the Open Range of each day as base of S/R. I use the 30 minute levels (Top, Mid & Bottom). Usually if price stays above MId, it will/may retest mid and ultimately stay above. Reverse for Short. Prior day levels are also reliable targets when NAZ breaks out of the O/R (open range). The link below is a good reference:
I have also noticed that the Overnight range Mid Level is usually consistent with Mid of O/R (usually, not always). Down moves at Open will many times retest O/N low, then move back to ML of O/R and drop back down.
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FA Zones, the failed auction zones have been reliable as target or turn zones. We have one above at 15540 and below at 14100. These are Major, we do see minor zones such as 14993 and 14700. Price will usually hit, stall and drop or reversed (hit, stall and pop). FA Chart below (Blue Zones are Gap Fills) and 3 line boxes are 30M O/R's. Michigandolf's 30min Opening Range / Indicator
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Yellow Boxes are Turn Zones
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Red Dash are Mid Level TZ's and KL's
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Yellow Circles 3 Leg Long and Red is 1st TZ potential for Pull Back, drop/pop.
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Friday IDS20 view and Divergence developing for PB.
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June 13th to current, bulk of PA. SMA 50, 100 and 200. 200 is below range and may see a retest.
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June 13th Long had a retest prior to Pop. July 19 Short had a retest prior to Drop. September 27th Long had a retest prior to Pop. October 12th Drop had NO Retest and October 26th Pop had NO Retest. Past 2 cycles had somewhat loose or very quick reversals, as compared to prior 5 direction changes. Just FYI and keep in mind as the direction can change change quickly (under 15500-15600).
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Just keep in mind that the flow is usually set to get you comfortable or set to go with a direction and then at that time the direction changes. The typical adjustment is 10-13 days. You are programmed to be late.
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Monday 11/6 is Flat and I just can't see the Longs that are up 700 Plus points let tier necks linger out here the get cut off. NAZ will drop on stall out, it is Monday and this is unusual. Sideways and lower until Friday Prop Rally low volume PA, into Sunday O/N Rip session. Should the pace stall out here in the Dead Zone.
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Play range with scalps until a Circle gets hit, like a Bullseye.
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Diablo likes the lower Circle.
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KLOD is 15185 today. The strange slooooow turn back to ML O/O is aiming for KLOD break and 140 retest.
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MR KLOD has taken many hits, Nearish and direct. Can go either way here. In Dead Zone you have to think back up and if no back in DZ, that is a Great Strong Short.
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Candle formation is sloppy and weak, this usually actually rallies, FYI. The opposite usually plays out 1st.
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PA so low I have been trading 12-15 contracts for any move I can get. Where is the strength? Was Fed Day, 1 O/N lift and a Friday all we get? BTD/FOMO Forever.
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We had 10 plus days of slow dropping PA that just popped (with no change in/of conditions) over 3 main days. I think that was a set up Long Trap for deeper drop should the pop stall out. Last pop will be in December when the low volume and Holiday schedule returns. Rally into 2024 with major sell off 1st Q or 2024. NAZ struggles to get lower, typically, Not when it just Popped in a 3-4 day period. That can drop back quickly. KLOD retest #5 NOW
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Bingo
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Diablo to 15089 is next on No Hold at 140
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11/8 Looking Short Today
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11/9/23, Staying with Short side
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4HR Chart update, The NAZ may get to 15450-500. 420 has been strong resistance for 2 O/N's and 2 Reg Sessions. Again, no new ground with recent lift, just back to prior recent high and getting ready for 7th direction change since July Top.
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What is with this SNAIL Price Action? That may be a Signal of lack of conviction along with low volume. BTD/FOMO Forever seems to be slowing.
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2 Year View, NAZ in a Cloud
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NAZ rejected at Blue Turn Zone.
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Test time and the KLOD Break is this move.
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340 may hold for pop back up and no hold is drop.
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Prior move to 15453 looked like a Long Trap, we will see.
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Almost, needs to get under 340, long above.
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Bottom and Top
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Tuesday Drop Offset start was 15258, we may bounce off that if the Riggers are awake and doing their job.
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Back to Rigger 258 Prop, they may defend the level.
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Long 250 to 300-60
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Look Short under 395
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Under Turn Zone or lower KL 15395, look short for retest of mid channel (yellow arrow).
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Good luck Followers, today is pivotal day. Have a Great Day and Weekend. 11/9/23 Private Post
11/10/23 Daily Range and KL's
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11/10 Post had 1st rejection at KL 15284, This was also a TLX, may be hard to pass, FYI.
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As the O/N lifts the NAZ, keep in mind that 15395 was best spot for short yesterday and now we at floating back up and 100 away from 395. The 2nd best spot will be under 395 and keep that in mind as the pops and drops with lower highs and lower lows. Do not get spun around as that is what they will try to do. Should we pass 395, then drop is not ready.
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Turn Zone 2nd try
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NAZ appears to capitulating.
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Under 395 is strong Short
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Need to see a Candle spike Wick
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Target and wick creation as FA's are all the way up.
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Holding the REVERSE Button, Wee
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Rigged
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Slow Mo capitulation, may be wrong with that one. Usually much faster.
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Just wait on Short, you will know when. Friday's play into O/N and Monday's LONG. Need to see Spike up (in normal days).
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Rolling over but slowly
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I closed Long at 15563, Feel Snap coming. 558-614 is range to watch
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Load up Short under KL 15550 with stop at 15620 or above. Short at stall under 15615 if it moves up or stays above 550. NAZ at 15560 now.
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Rationale is that there are so many Failed Auction below. These usually get retested prior to a move higher and are fake PA.
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No trade triggered as the Price is barley moving. I would cancel the Short near 615. This may not drop at all.
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Circles are Long to or short from targets, next week.
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Current lift can go as high as 15800, the idea is below. The Red Diagram (left) 800 point drop after the Spike candle went sideways and then changed direction. The 400 point Friday may be the start of the next cycle. Watch 15600-800 and current level to 15400 for turn or sideways, then next move.
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615 did stall out and drop, 450 may been bounce level in O/N. KL's for O/N are 400, 450 and 600.
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Orange are new FA's and 1 (white) FA was taken out. NAZ turned at Lower Circle, may try upper, if so that would be a level to look short for a pull back to lower FA's.
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11/14, CPI release, meet the Diablo
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Diablo POP, orange zone are FA's, this will be an "Air Pocket" Long Trap and get retested. Careful here FOMO.
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11/14 PA, 640-80 is only Reg Session range that could be traded. Narrow and NAZ is pushed up in Pre Open in a few minutes, this is forced move and will retest lower once the lift does stall or 40 point range gets broken.
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Just watch Drops under 15880 and BTD plays.
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11/15 Turn day view post
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Important day as follow up to yesterday Short Call. No O/N Prop and Post is below.
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White Arrow is KL Short or potential direction change call form yesterdays post.
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11/16 Post was accurate with stall/drop and 11/17 is attached. Key day/level as typical Friday-Monday lift play may not work. If so, may see decent drop. Otherwise, stay Long through Monday and probably most of next week.
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11/17 post,
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The daily chart is the Volume Profile with VA (white line) and POC (yellow dash), prior to recent run.
VP after or current
Unless Santa brings some serious Price Action for the Regular Session, I think we retest 15200. Watch the low volume games (upside only) the week of Thanksgiving.
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Lower FA Zones
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IDS20 Scalp System, 11/17 Long on white and Short on Yellows. Pattern continues for multiple Scalp Trades.
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Mentioned on 11/17 Post, in O/N long to KL 15920 in O/N and Short from in Reg Session. Watch O/N high during Reg Session, the NAZ typically will fall under during Reg Session. Monday Holiday week may try KL high #2 16000-40.
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Daily Narrow Range
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O/N took out 1st lower FA, look for the test of blue box this week if not today. May be tomorrow as the Sunday/Monday Long Play form O/n may be the direction.
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16000 Short may play out or 16040, expected a pop here on Monday. Looking for O/R MID to Lower retest.
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White arrow is Long Entry and Yellow is Target and Short. Most Likely range for day or week.
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16000 Retest of ML O/R to the penny (15940). just play easy trades and look for sell off later back to mid range (15900).
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Should upper FA Zone get cleaned out it may set up reversal trade the FA below.
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20 Year Bond Auction at Noon will send NAZ lower.
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20YR went well, Good news is bad news spin, on the way to justify drop. Drop may be final hour or by Open Tuesday, just needs to retest lower 15900-800
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16075-15840 is an established range (5 days). Unless NAZ blows the top off above high (16075), it should drop back in. Not sure it breaks out this week, I think they just play the full range (like O/N to current).
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Flat, too slow to add or trade, may just get ramped up into Close and O/N.
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Looks like Short Shake out and today is most likely just a Monday Boost for the week that may go sideways to lower.
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11/21, Diablo Day and look Short. Not a Friday or Monday but a Holiday so the Short Ride lower may be limited or FOMC Minutes will shake it up and Nvidia will redirect the FOMC move. Just do not feel solidness under yesterdays lift.
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Channel Chart, NAZ on the edge.
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16075 Retest done in O/N at 6:30am, Grey Zones are targets for a pull back, 15775 is larger Failed Auction zone. Should channel reject NAZ, the grey level will be hit and bounce or keep dropping for FA zone below.
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Friday post I mentioned the current level as a Long to and now is Short from. Will drop some to retest or set next bigger move. Good luck today and I may check back later. Expecting nothing or decent counter trend move today.
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For those that have been following for awhile, 16073 is a TLX. These are reliable for indicating a direction change or turn zone.
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Any Hold/Bounce may try 16155 KL, and drop was 100, typical TZ. Above SZ's and FA's are now gone. May bounce off 16000
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The white arrows show the start of the FA and target for next counter trade. You sit and wait fir IDS20 to set for move to SZ or Shaded Zone.
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16000 Target Hit. next lower is 15940 and upper is 16155 should Diablo Pop. Range today may be 15840-16155.
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15920 is 200 point drop and NAZ may head to Diablo test 16020. Lower Target hit on Daily Forecast.
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945 and above should try 980-16000 and Diablo is now lower for pop through Long should it hold.
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15900 Is Danger Zone and They will keep NAZ away from the DZ.
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15980 Hit and Diablo try to get passed 16000, rejection may send the NAZ to Danger Zone 15900
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NAZ out of Channel and TLX and Diablo held .
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11/22 Post and final for week.
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10 YN has moved lower some since Tuesday, may see stock lower or 10TN come back up and stock move up.
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NAZ, Danger Zone retest or BTD/FOMO Forever.
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Under Friday Close is key 16036, KL 15901 is strong short
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11/27 Post
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11/28 Post is Public, FA Zone update below.
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11/29 Post
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Near Month End and may get PA back in lower Channel.
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11/30 Post and Month End Day
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12/1 Post
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12/4, No Public post today. No O/N Lift is no good. NAZ typically has little to ZERO strength on Long Side during Open Range of Reg Session. It will need to rebound from the drop. Good Luck today, Long Trap has been set from prior days PA.
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16036-15900 Update, break below is looking possible, need to get past the Riggers, BTD/FOMO's
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15800 is Danger Zone and look for the defending at level, they will not want it down there.
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U Turn in Dead Zone is Likely or major drop on the way.
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FA Update and NAZ should start moving up from 725
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The 725 Long was hard one (called in Private), the snail PA is what to expect during the Dead Zone and UP is usually the ONLY Direction, Part of the Rig Drop Offset.. 15795-820 may reject this weak lift.
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ML O/R Hit and under 850 is a short for EOD Drop, may be last lift to get short for day or next few days. 850-910 is no pass drop zone.
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12/5 Looking Short today, yesterday private Post.
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Yellow Dotted are KL's to watch, NAZ is under U Turn Zone, may try to get back in or take a dive.
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Looks like NAZ is trying for 15860-15900 as Test and potential rejection Drop Zone.
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After next try higher, 15700-15600 is air pocket drop zone and this level may be protected as the NAZ will drop. The other play is to look Long should the range hold.
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15770-810 lift may be weak pump/dump attempt by the Rig Team. Good luck today.
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12/13 Fed Day, NAZ is near ATH, get out your Shorts.
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Key day today for LC Tech as RTY is outperforming, rotation may be on. Private Post for today.
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Everyday the NAZ will move in a 200ish point range, play the range and we are looking for a 1 way day lower to retest. Keep in mind that we have a 200 point gap below due to contract change. This is a "air pocket" that usually gets retested.
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Fed Day Long Trap so far, BTD/FOMO Forever or wait until next FED Day ONLY. 16750 will need to hold here and pass 16845.
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Post update, 16627 hit, may come back up some.
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Leaving early today, 16740-627 may be zone to play, recent drop has FA at 16740
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12/15, 16627 hit did pop back up to 16825 range. This by way of slow lift and O/N lift (hours as compared to drop minutes). Friday's tend to rally into Monday, so just let it go until next 200 point drop in minutes.
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Open drop (1st 30M), dead Zone rally and then O/N Rally to the moon into Monday close with sell off on Tuesday. This has been the pattern all year and may be the last one so take your time with the Short entry during the Holiday lower 1 way volume.
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No 1 way run as we are still in every trade or move coming back on the move range. This gives you 2 chances to catch some points. The drop will come once this changes and the cycle breaks. The drop is most Likely the next bigger move as we get stretched here.
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Test Zone for next move
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Good Luck today, Track 100 point moves and plan 100 point targets
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Rejection, give it 100
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12/15 Private Post, The big Dipper is on the way. Just need to get past Holiday Lazy PA.
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Looking for 200 point drop next day or so.
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NAZ at Launch Zone and no lift is 200 point drop
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2 weeks left with YE 2023, 12/18 Post
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LZ did hold for run up but getting weaker and weaker, drop test to follow.
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12/19, Since the post date of 11/4 that NAZ has moved 20% or 1,800 point to just above Yellow Triangle. Look for NAZ to come back to ML of Triangle or 16,000 a 900 point drop. Not today but gradually.
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16960-17000 should be a TZ for today for ML O/N retest and then sideways to lower.
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NAZ is flipping at TZ, watch level.
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So today we are looking for a O/R ML retest and failure or the NAZ to stay under the O/R ML and test lower O/ and O/N Leve s or even yesterday lower KL's. The placing of orders at targets and pointing in opposite direction may be better today and next few. Good luck in low vol whipsaw rig show today.
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In the Turn Zone or above, NAZ is showing early signs of Push/Pull on the way. Look for Rig Pop in O/R or before and any stall is Strong Short and then the P/P has to show up and stay, otherwise BTD/FOMO Forever.
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TZ turning, Again O/N is only gains.
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TZ rolling and turning, may be top as we have had many direction changes.
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16990 Hold is Log and Break is Short
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100 Point move up from 16970 and/or 100 point move lower from 17008
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17008-970 just wait for true break out, shake outs will happen until last minute
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Last half minute, Just tricks and games and I wonder why
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SZ's below are next targets
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1,000 points on FUMES, BTD. We rode up but now extended, STR Sell The Rip (or snail lift)
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Air Pocket and Divergence all in one
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Turbulence with the AP, 50 candles up and 3-4 lower, bogus ratio for the BTD's.
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Old SZ's taken out , many more below and a few new higher. STR (snail lift).
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12/20 Now that they held NAZ up yesterday until final minute of day and popped it high in O/N, the drop at 2am is about 100 points and this has expanded the range. Look for the NAZ to play inside the range before next move. ML of O/N is 17004 and KLOD is 16988.
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Today is the 3rd time that the NAZ has been under the KLOD is past 10 days. Should NAZ not get back above and stay, that will be a very Bearish signal and open up the door to 16600 1st.
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Vol is 10% higher than yesterday at same time, that would be the selling. KLOD is rejecting for now.
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GOOG, CL, 10YN and BTC are all up and will help to stabilize the NAZ. These need to drop or stall out. Goog Luck today and play the games and tricks, they will be active all day long.
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Looking for stall out back to KLOD Test and Drop, not looking bullish today.
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Watch O/N high, major divergence here at 17040
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Only play is below O/N may drop, not buying up here as may pop and snap.
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NAZ will have to break under ML O/R under 17045 and then KOD or may pop back up.
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Again, many candles up and only a few to drop it.
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NAZ may try Outside day reversal here, no bounce at KLOD
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16911 is Reversal target
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Let it run, may not pop back at all
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Drop Test
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Live Post for 12/21 since it is getting exciting with some movement.
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12/26 Final week, I may have mostly public posts for followers as it will be slow to narrow unless we see a last minute decent drop.
Trade closed manually
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Closing this out as I will post each day until 2024.
...please tell me when this crap NQ drops? What does it take? How many more levels do you have to overcome? How many resistors? Is NQ really that happy? please thx!!
bahram76malaki
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It will go down after new year.
ir00
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start new thread this one is lagging af
Trebor74
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Seeing the yellow dashed arrow in the last picture, I jumped out of my chair in joy! 14700-14600? Is this serious Mazing? lolllllllllllllllllll
MAZing
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@Trebor74, No just a direction change on that one. Looking for decent Pull Back here. The daily chart is just a daily view of lift and prior lifts.
@MAZing, please update if you have time! Thanks!!!
Divergencify
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wow, that's an idea. I like what you are doing, incredible knowledge of NQ. take care
MAZing
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@Divergencify, Thanks, hope you are doing well. It has been just painful the past 2 months with all the Long Side games, 2024 will be a Bloodbath at first for the BTD/FOMO's and we will have some good 2 way PA.
Is NQ really that happy? please thx!!