NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels (Nov28-Dec2)

The Nasdaq closed the week up a modest .64% after trading in range of 400 points. Price spent another week in a condensed range on low volume due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The Nasdaq continued to hold the upper third of the explosive move on Nov 10th. Expect higher volatility next week due to a slew of economic data and a speech by Powell. Key data to watch will be GPD on Wed, PCE prices on Thurs and Non Farm Payrolls on Friday. The Nasdaq is now about 750 points below the downward trend line and 200 SMA. This zone may continue to be price magnet. One factor to consider is that the S&P has already came within 10 pts of its 200 sma. A reversal of the S&P at it’s 200 sma would likely bring both indexes down. Potential decision point week ahead.

• Coming off low volume tight range week
• Nasdaq 750 points below key resistance (200 sma/downward trendline)
• S&P currently at key resistance
• Heavy week of economic data (GDP, PCE & Non Farm Payrolls)
• JPOW speaks on Wednesday
• Santa Rally will be top of mind
• Last day of the month is Wednesday
• Massive short covering rally possible above 200 SMA
• Massive down move potential if S&P rejects at the 200 SMA
• Notably low VIX… Below 20 has been good time to take profits
• Fed Heads have softened their Hawkish tone
• DXY and Yields have dropped significantly

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Fed’s Bullard & Williams speak
Tuesday Canadian GDP & US CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday US GDP, US ADP Payroll, US PCE Prelim, US EIA Crude & Fed’s Powell speaks
Thursday US PCE, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Consumer Spending, US ISM Manufacturing & Fed Heads speak
Friday US Unemployment Rate & Non Farm Payrolls

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday ARWR, PDD
Tuesday BHP, BILI, CRWD, HPE, INTU, WDAY
Wednesday CRM, HRL, NTNX, OKTA, PSTG, SNOW, XPEV
Thursday DG, KR, MRVL, ZS
Friday Nothing notable

BULLISH NOTES

Nasdaq above 9/21/55 ema
200 SMA within striking distance
Less hawkish tone from Fed heads
Massive short covering possible above 200 sma
Santa Rally top of mind
DXY & yields may continue to drop
Potential positive reaction to Powell & econ data
Any sign of dropping inflation could send NQ higher

BEARISH NOTES

S&P at resistance and may reject pulling NQ down
DXY & yields may reverse higher
Potential negative reaction to JPOW
Potential negative reaction the econ data
Many market participants expect reversal soon
Any sign of increased inflation could send NQ lower
VIX at 20 or below tends to be good time to take profits

Comment:

Price stuck in condensed range above the larger base. Basically waiting on news right now to move the market. May do thing until Wednesday.

Comment:

Price working the bottom of the near term range which lines up with daily 21 ema. Carry forward that this is a key level.

Comment:

Broke below the 21 ema today but found support at the 382 Fib RT. Market trickling down but obviously waiting on more information. GDP and prelim PCE out tomorrow b/f market open.

Comment:

Look on the 1H. Clearly the previous days close and the 382 Fib level is key. Treating this as my bull/bear line this morning.

Comment:

Held the 382 Fib level like a champ and exploded higher after Powell speech. Looking for ES to break the 200 for follow through.

Comment:

ES has rejected back below the 200 and the NQ dropped 270 point in a split second of the NFP data. Looking for price to hold the box. Could see a big drop if price falls below. Price action leans bearish if it cannot reclaim more that 50% of the overnight gap down.