Friday the NAZ rolled with very little fight. We still have not seen big limit down Overnights during this 7 month drop. This will need to show up prior to any real recovery. The US indexes can drop 50% more from current levels, and that would be normal. Left Chart is 1HR Candle, yellow lines are "Open Drive" Tops/Bottoms. The NAZ will play these as it moves, tests and retests. The white is my KL (key level) for next decent bounce test, Red is TLX and extreme low. TLX is where we go lower and not retrace back up. Pop/Drop for Monday most likely, need to see rejection is strong sell zone near 12585. Check out related Ideas for additional/past call results.
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Thursday into Friday Open Divergence, This started with my Short call at Thursday Close. NAZ retraced back up and at 1st stall went anchors away.
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Thursday Set up for Friday drop. This is a Prop - Drop Offset. The strange bounce on Thursday (during the Dead Zone) is easily erased on Friday. The Flip/Snap comments that I was making were regarding the idea of what played out on Friday. The IDS 50 Divergence development is why I went Short on Friday and reloaded after 1st stop out. Expect some whipsaw on Monday above current price. However, we may still see the limit down Overnight (at some time).
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NAZ hit many times the 12430 level that I called on Friday, no pass. Most likley 1st test target is 12350 as Asia and EU are lower. Expect the opposite Prop offset move at all times as it is obvious that the NAZ will try lower today. In other words and to be clear, the NAZ may pop some, stall, then try for 350.
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12602 was the Flip Zone. The IDS 50 (circle) shows the price action rejection/snap. You will see me note this in many prior posts. The 12602 may be in play again today, very likley. The 350 test bounce will target this OR vice versa. To be clear, the NAZ may pop some to level or under, stall and fall to 350. I am going to try and be very clear with what I call so that there is less confusion.
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NAZ has moved 20 points up since I posted the 350 target comment, 22 minutes ago. The NAZ will typically move when I post (the goal). You need to pick direction and switch, if needed (according to notes). Or wait and some times I will will be wrong, this will happen.
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NAZ has now moved 45 points in 36 minutes, may be heading to Daily Pivot at 12489. Bad 350 call or good long set up call into short flip? Depends on you and your decision with intel.
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The following is a Line Break Chart, the yellow lines suggest the range. In find the LB's to be very effective/accurate. I use 3 or 6 back settings on 6 minute chart. Add this if you can as an additional confirmation. I prefer LB over than Renko.
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Vertical on 50 Right side and Stoch Left side, NAZ may drop/turn here. Play the zone, stepping away until after Open.
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Typical Pre Open prop, watch for NAZ to flip between 12485 and 12498. Should it flip, stall, the 350 target will only come into play should NAZ stay under the Stall High. 50RB is still vertical.
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12475 on LB to High of 12497.5 is range, narrow. Notice the yellow line of 12498 was a preset Key Level or target and it looks like these presets are in play with the machines. The LB chart below would suggest the momentum push continues off 75 and toward upper yellow LB target.
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Open 350 test bounce, let it play out. Back under CURVE. 350 and above Go long to 12498. Under 12257 Target.
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Scalp 12440 most likely
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Play Open Range of 1st 30 M. You all need to trade quick, I am done typing.
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5 Long at 12330 to 12400
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NAZ is not going anywhere, Propping is not over. Use stop of 30 or so. You should have plenty of Points to play with from last sequence. Use them as a stop and look counter trend here, stepping away and let this one go.
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Major 2 way Scalp day, typing will be less today.
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Stay Long
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12372 is strong long.
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Weak PA, should just float higher after EU close. Stop at 320
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Have to play targets today. 350 drop/pop, next will close at 45
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350 did drop/pop and now approaching 12400, games.
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Long 5 at 12315
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Target 12350 then 12400
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Current drop from 12400 is more of a retest than drop further, could be wrong use profit as stop 30 back just in case.
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12328 is KL to pass for Long.
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Move stop to 12300
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should see a floater here at 315
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trail NAZ up, hit 328. move stop to 315
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315 hit, reload your call, should pop some.
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On last trade to move to buy in was very very conservative and is OK, given the time of day. No need to chase.
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Back at 328, see how you need a wide stop. Do not let it bother you if you lost nothing.
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Interesting, break out is a decent POP.
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Why we do not chase after a failed POP, NAZ at 302. May go lower and not return. Last trade was a KL direction test.
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Long 5 at 305 with 25 stop
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328 is target and will need to pass, no pass - Take Profit.
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Low negative Ticks, may see Pop.
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Looks like a Bottom MOP, close on stop out, look to move stop to 305 once it passes.
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Stop hit
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5 Long at 12270
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Stop at 245
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Target 325, 350, 400
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If volume was higher, I may be concerned. Expect a whippy close or major 1 direction final 10M move, could be lower (FYI Longs) and use targets for closing trades.
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Pretty mild 2 - 2:15 sell zone, what I am thinking, below. Odds favor a POP.
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Slightest divergence angles, create decent moves. Look for this when you trade.
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Take profit at 295 to cover loss or let if FLY.
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300 pass for break out, move stop to 270 or buy in.
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270 Stop no hit, should pop a bit, needs to pass 300. Do Not Move Stop.
It was looking relatively upward to me since 2 hours ago. Lately, Germans usually drop some in the first hour to go back up for the rest of the day - and then an open session in the US decides their final direction. I'm long since 405 and will reverse to short at higher levels (probably 600). Now may correct a bit towards 430 if anyone wants to join the long. Stop loss for now conservatively at 400, but will push higher below new higher lows, just in case the market will want to go to 350 first, which I find not likely before the open.
jakslo23
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@jakslo23, the first warning to the long side - DAX popping hard, futures stalling
jakslo23
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@jakslo23, given the relative weakness, planning to reverse to short once DAX reaches 350 (the perfect place for it to be rejected)
@jakslo23, DAX stalling but not falling, either drop or break out up soon
jakslo23
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@jakslo23, futures ready to drop, but Germans seem to be willing higher, and riggers are in too, closing short with 20 points profit, and stepping away for now
jakslo23
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@jakslo23, riggers seem out of magic dust, but Germans determined and built a base for more popping. Just watching for now.
ultruiliu
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you are so calm during trading, how can you do that.. ?
MAZing
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@ultruiliu, Is what it is, deal with what develops good or bad. It's just a game.
jakslo23
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Yup, this one looks kinda promising, reversed before open short to long. Let's see.