US markets are finally giving up their hopes for a bull run, made a desperate attempt to break upwards from the big bearish wedge, but since the FB dump things have changed, REALITY CHECK!!!!! Even though my DAX bear market is still in full play, US markets kept pushing higher. Now we finally have a serious sign of weakness. This could be the ATH for a very long time now.
If the 7300 breaks it would be a very good first confirmation, a break of the wedge would probably mean game over!
Dax Analysis about the bear market i showed since the January high:
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Nasdaq is still very bearish, daily and weekly show a possible top formation and have actually almost confirmed it. The real confirmation will be the break of the bearish wedge.
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Markets are tumbling today, reports from Asia that demand on oil is decreasing probably did the trick. Europe is dumping big time for days now, US markets are taking hits as well today. Maybe the US will finally give up as well, postponing the inevitable.
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Of course the US markets are pumping up again, these people just never learn. Anyway, the big wedge is almost getting invalidated because it's getting to big. Still below the resistance, but probably if we don't see a move down soon (next few weeks) it could mean we could just go up even higher and that i might have jumped to the bear mode too soon.
Markets don't always move based on logic, just like in crypto, there are allot more things at stake than just logic. Timing the high, the end of a long term trend is very difficult, that is something i have seen before in my career. Where i used to fight it 10/20 years ago and make it personal i have let go of that personal feeling and just trade on what i see. I gave a warning last week in my groups after we broke that trend line around 7400, to make a choice. Get out completely or partially with a stop around the ATH. Because if the view is NOT wrong but the market still goes up, we will get another chance to short it soon again. And if the few is wrong, well than the damage is minimal.
There is room for personal thoughts, but not feelings, there is a difference. Thoughts should be objective, feelings (hope) are not.
The DAX, which has been my main index since the Jan drop this year, is still at a small resistance level but the low time frame shows some more room to the upside as well.
The funny thing is most of the big players have been crying Bitcoin is in a bubble while conveniently ignoring the bubbles they have created elsewhere. As for Facebook, I hope it continues to plummet in value. Trashy social media platforms that don't respect their users deserve to collapse.
botje11
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@rev214us, US markets are in a bubble as well, Americans just ignore it
medic86
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@rev214us, Couldn't agree more!
BDG
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The NASDAQ Index is largely controlled by the 5 largest tech companies, namely Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet/Google, FaceBook, Amazon. If any of these 5 companies are down, then the entire NASDAQ index is down. These are the market movers. These stocks ARE NASDAQ!
kickflip360
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@BDG, So if one doesn't quite meet the earnings expectations, but others exceed then do you think that the stock market cannot still go up? Amazon, Google and Microsoft have exceeded and Apple will likely do the same. And what about all the other large cap names that are doing well? Facebook just took a 20% plunge and the NASDAQ is still set to make new ATH's, I don't see why everyone and their mothers are calling tops yet.
mlotis
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Do you think we'll see an uptick in cryptocurrency as people pull out of an impending bear market to an impending bull market?
Earthboundmisfit
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@mlotis, I would think no. Things always go down faster then up. Thats why wallstreet was the most profitable during the recession. They just want volatility like us all
relaw
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@mlotis, I my opinion, we would have bull market if ETF will be open for whales.
kickflip360
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I don't see it yet, Facebook doesn't dictate the whole stock market although people seem to be convinced otherwise. Maybe I'm wrong but when other major names are exceeding earnings expectations I think the bulls still have full control.