NQ has evolved to the place where bears go to die or the bear graveyard. In their minds, every bear keeps thinking that they'll get the most juice of their shorts from the NQ. So convinced by their grand dreams of a crash, they blindly short the NQ and keep calling a top. The issue? They never checked liquidity levels, credit markets, or available cash. In the end, the permabears keep covering their shorts to a new all-time high. This has been going on since June now.
Trading basics: you don't short a bubble, ever. Why? Bubbles can inflate much longer and larger than any permabear's imagination. Therefore, you will lose 99% of the time for calling a top.
Permabears would blame that it's a fake rally, too many buyers below, the Fed, or whatever. At the end of the day, they never checked the internals in the market and made a bad decision. What's worse is that by blaming it on anything else but themselves caused them not to learn their lesson. So, they kept shorting and short covering.
The lesson that both permabears and permabulls need to learn is that the market will do whatever it wants. There is nothing we can do about it. At the end of the day, the market doesn't care about anyone's emotions or grand dream. Though, the people who lose the most are the ones who buy into their dream.
NQ is in an awkward position. It's too high to go long due to fear of a sudden pullback. However, liquidity levels are too high to short. I'm not shorting the NQ until I see the market internal data support a downtrend. I'll just play the waiting game at a major support.
Which stocks are still being shorted? Here is a list of stocks with the most short interest. Guess which ones?
shorts days to cover on AAPL and TSLA are 1 day roughly. Also put/call skew on apple is insane right now (zerohedge.com/markets/how-hedge-apple-blow-top-melt). Gotta be getting close to a top, one would think. The overhype is palpable
Itsallsotiresome
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@wordsforthewise Go ahead and keep shorting NQ. Go ahead and short a bubble. See how that goes.
@Itsallsotiresome, really is starting to feel like a blowoff top though, more and more every day. That or the dollar is going to 0
Itsallsotiresome
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@wordsforthewise, For all we know, this can keep going on for weeks. I have no clue. I refuse to call a top because I will be wrong 99% of the time. I mean, would I really be surprised if the NQ reached 20,000? Sadly... no... :(
wordsforthewise
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@Itsallsotiresome, haha yeah, right after i sent that i realized it was moronic. It's felt like a blowoff top for months on end, and probably will continue for several more months or even years. They probably announce another 10T in fed printing tomorrow and the market goes up 20x in a day, LOL
Itsallsotiresome
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@wordsforthewise, Yeah, man. I'm not shorting any bubble. I got burned before for doing that. I did multiple times years ago... yeah, that was a very expensive lesson. That's why I preach it. I'm not making that mistake again.
wordsforthewise
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@Itsallsotiresome, it pays to be an optimist, but it also pays to exit before the bubbles burst
TrendRider88
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What's the reliable source to check available cash or liquidity? MMF is in history high in recent months
Itsallsotiresome
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@TrendRider88, There is a hard mode and an easy mode. Hard mode: You calculate ANFCI, credit markets, bonds, junk bonds, treasury security purchases, Fed operations, and somehow have access to the Bloomberg Terminal. It's a lot of math which may take you hours per night.
Easy mode: There is one algorithm out there that crushes all the calculations of liquidity into one chart. It's called the Market Conditions Index or the MCI. It's a highly specialized algorithm meant to read liquidity and how strong the supports are. The creator is my second mentor. His tag name is "Dante Valerian." You can type his tag name on Twitter or Stocktwits. To get liquidity data, you need to subscribe to his actual website. If you Google his tag name, it should be the second link. Trading View censors the actual link for some reason. He's a lot nicer than I am. I'm just a jerk and I know it. How reliable is it? If you look at my past posts, a strong majority of my successful trades was because of his brilliance.