NQ - ES YM RTY ZN TLT / Final Commentary - 10/7/2021
Macro Observations
As the Global Economy continues to weaken, DEBT is beginning to weigh heavily on the same.
Inflations have many Vectors - Monetary, Fiscal, and Confidence.
Throughout the history of the United States, the "Debt Ceiling" has always been a Glass Roof.
At present, decades of abuse since the 1980s have come home to roost.
The result of multiple stimulus measures aimed at combating the pandemic's economic impact...
Congress will run a budgetary shortfall this year equivalent to 13.4% of GDP or approximately
$3.1 Trillion.
It is axiomatic, Fiscal and Monetary Policies have failed.
The crisis will continue to worsen over the coming years, 2022 it will reach its zenith and fail
in the most unimaginable ways.
Confidence is nearing all-time lows. A Panic is in the air within the "Investing Complex" - it has
just begun for Retail Investors. Buy the Dip, the FED has a Put under the Equities Markets is slowly,
ever so slowly giving way to the recognition, All is not at all well.
The "Everything Must Go Sale" is gaining momentum.
And by "everything" - we, indeed, mean everything for reasons which have been discussed repeatedly
here within this sliver of TV.
The Boat will tip, list, and capsize into 2022, for now, a healthy correction is ahead as indicated.
Higher rates are axiomatic, the Federal Reserve will begin to move further into the Shadows with
its Operations.
Dark Pools will continue to position into the Sell.
It won't be The End, it will, however, "feel" like it. There will be one last high to put bring an end to
the Longest Bull Market in History. That will be THE END.
For now, Buckle up, the Sportiness is ON.
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NQ ES YM RTY ZN TLT
The Nasdaq chart above illustrates the larger Daily Price Objective. How it gets there will be quick
and dirty, a rather nasty affair as reality sets in, takes hold and dumps the sordid mess on its collective
head.
Whether or not there is a consolidation zone prior to the large DUMP, will depend upon Distribution
patterns and the Budget news cycle as well as the middle of the UST Curve, namely the 10 Year Note.
It is not a no-mans land, but the very inflection point on the Yield Curve.
It is overdue, for reasons we have covered repeatedly. Over and over and over to the point, they
no longer bare repeating. Simply review the past several months of commentary to EDU yourself.
We have grown wary of rehashing our Thesis.
It has been proven correct and is now in Trade.
It takes time to form a top, it is a process until it becomes an event.
The Technical Conditions have been growing increasingly weak for several months.
3x and 4x Divergences have been building on Larger timeframes and are now beginning to assert themselves.
It will remain choppy to Down and as October unfolds, the larger Sell will arrive.
The ES & YM will follow the NQ, the YM will remain the Laggard as will RTY until rotational failure will
occur. It is best to observe the Weekly and Monthly TF's there for levels.
We believe the 200SMAs, as well, the 400SMAs come into play in October, no later than November. One
fairly significant cleansing of Speculative Juices among the Retail Investing Herd.
ZN & TLT, again, for reasons we have covered repeatedly are in a confirmed SELL. We believe the 10 Year Note
Yield will see new highs, the ROCs we noted are gaining immense traction. An explosive move higher is unfolding.
139s will print on TLT, ZN could dive well into the 120s. Debt Obligations will demand higher rates at a time
when the DEBT edifice itself is going to be difficult to string together.
Pushing on a string comes to mind.
Conventional Correlations are DOA, insisting they are functioning is simply ignoring reality.
Yesterday is today shall be tomorrow... best of luck to you in this Dogma.
Lagarde and Powell both speak this morning, furthering the All Digital agenda.
We will be absent for a number of trading Sessions as we relocate our arrangements over the coming days.
Hopefully, to return no later than October 7th.
Be well - HK
Comment:
The 10 Year Note Yield Level to observe @ 1.545% a close over implies 1.71s in a hurry.
Comment:
FED Presidents resigning another clue...
Comment:
Big Yellow Taxi South - www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvtJPs8I...
Comment:
Trade Safe everyone, cya in a week.
Alex and I are out.
Alex and I are out.
YM 34561 Pivot for Lower
NQ 14885 - 15006
ZN 131.025 - 132.225
VIX Pivot for higher 21.65