I was counter trend all day (7-26) after the my initial short. I mentioned the Long bias showing up 7-25, I joked about the "end of rainbow" today at low (12080) was loaded Long with 5 many times and ended up with a 20 point (100 total) scalp. Mentioned and displayed the Baseline chart (below) with 12300 as potential target. After the close, it happed in less than 1 hour.
So I can predict and be accurate, I still missed that 200 point Prop (after calling it). I mention all for a reason, this specific prop is most likely a Prop Offset to what is on the way next (a drop). The system is (and has been all year) supported with strange off session moves (mostly up). Yellow arrow is wide range for tomorrow, I will tell you that it may travel the entire range. The pattern has been higher on Fed day followed by sell off, the following. Tonights prop (so far) may be needed as a cushion (in case of a huge drop). My definition of Overnight Propping is Selective Propping and not Total Propping (joking). I feel that we are experiencing Selective Propping, at this time and my move into Total Propping. This will end when we see some Limit Down Overnight sessions. These will show up, prior to a real move higher (not selective or total prop).
Baseline Chart
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You will notice that the baseline (Red/White level) move up from 11900 to 12200. The 3 circles are the battle zones or targets. No pass at an upper, will drop to a lower, hold at a lower, will pop to an upper.
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I will be out most of the day today and typically to not trade on Fed Day. My gut feeling is titled to the Long side. The rate and any explanation will be spun and the markets usually produce an extended upward move. Upper circle is target, or may be even Box Top. Then next day, it all falls back. I highly doubt that we see a drop to lower levels before the Fall. The Overnight Rigging and Propping has been extremely effective and is the best I have ever seen. This is the only reason that trading this year has been difficult. Again, we need to see some huge limit down Overnight sessions, they just never happen.
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Should NAZ actually drop, 11,900 os bounce zone.
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I missed this one, you can see it now.
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Many have asked, what is a Prop or what do you look for? The circle is an example of 163 point run at the close (after hours and open of AH). This zone is the key to holding the NAZ up and may be tested. "Air Pocket" is another term.
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Under 12440, a Short back to 12300 would be normal. Not Today as it is Propped. This is just unreal, the Drop later today might be a DOOSEY.
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Should see an Air Pocket test here, in normal times.
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Not trading today, it is so frustrating. Think of all the Whipsawed sellers over past few days. The NAZ was drop again at a stall at current level. Here we have a Pivot, Top of 1st 30M (prior days), Fib Level. Stalling is falling, only issue is the Prop Magic and Algo's. Watch 12402 as KL for drop.
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Hard to say what is happening since yesterday close. Most likely a set up Short should lift stall. Like I said yesterday, whenever the NAZ gets near a trouble zone/level it has a huge bounce.
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Shorting 5 at 12462 for 100 point Take Profit and 50 point Stop.
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Decided to take a shot after viewing the fake PA.
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Moving stop to 462
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Closing at 12420 + 40 x 5 200
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Shorting 1 at 12444 with 200 point stop, will look to catch whipsaw at 1 CT
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Take profit at 12350
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Overnight Air Pocket is at 12340, NAZ should test it and then bounce or drop.
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Nice to be sitting counter Fake trend with 200 point No Risk trade.
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Snap or Pop is next. Looking like Pop, so most likely a SNAP. This is what is needed lately.
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Only 100 points of 320 is from Open Session, see the Prop. Been working all year, the new QE.
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Adding 4 Short at 12465
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Stop at 12495
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Dropping 5 at 12415
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+ 180ish on Short
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The weakest reaction to a Fed Rate, this may Rocket higher. So look Short, been working. Just do opposite.
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Could be a Flip, If NAZ stay under Top.
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Could try a Short with Stop just above Top, Just a Note.
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Shorts should show up soon.
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Here we GO. 12445 Lower
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Flat Just watching
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This is just like yesterday at the close and then the NAZ runs in opposite direction. Flat tilted Short.
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Told Ya, Ticks just turned negative.
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Flip out in play, 1 -2 more no pass Top and it is going Down.
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Really Good Head Fake at 12500 - 20, WOW. Shorting 5 at 12500 50 point stop.
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Take profit at 12400
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Stop hit - 250
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Shorting 5 at 12590 Stop at 12620
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Take profit 12480, Final Trade
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Break Even or Bust. I just have ZERO respect for this market, zero.
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Stopped -150
Trade closed manually
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Too easy it actually difficult. This will most likely Tank by Monday open. I am not chasing and have to slow it down, I was using profit so not a big deal.
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Yellow arrow on Left chart show the Long Signal, I was looking Short and Right chart gives false signals. NAZ will test 12577, so 12590 was good for Scalp and that is it.
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Last 2 days was a good lesson with me on how difficult this is. I was in and called these moves and walked away with less than I should have. Today was a stubborn stance, this will not work. It is very hard to switch gears, something you will/may struggle with. The NAZ is basically a 1 way play, this has been the case all year. The news and such, block out. Today, where is the Recession definition issue and what about inflation? Did this all change in the past 12 hours?
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The below is the IDS 20, Yellow arrows are Buy signals and the trade is when the white bar gets above white line and stay. Close long at red at/under white line. Re enter Long after a few red valleys and back above white on white. Reverse when Shorting. This requires focus, I did not use this today. Was winging it.
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Scalp Shorts are harder, the white Peaks have to be under the Highest Peak. Look at the NAZ 150 points off high
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12564 and above appears to be a Long Trap, watch the level between now and tomorrow.
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IDS 20 Scalp Signal
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The above Long would target 12620, stall close or move up stop.
Hmm, melting up already, could that mean that yesterday's pump was not offset, but Jerome told his boys what will happen today? 50 bps and back to being a nice dove boy?
Do not feel badly. I also countertrend all day and came ahead 50 bucks for my trouble. Gotta ask urself; "Self, wth you risk 10k on calls to make 0.5%?!" Better to take a nice nap, mow the yard, go fishing instead, lol. Closed it all EOD because I reckoned these ERs coming would disappoint... and they did! BUT Bad news is Good again! LOL. Stay the course. A stupid rally comes, then the drop.
MAZing
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@DaddySawbucks, Funny, My issue is with the extreme and constant rigging of off session. It is like playing two separate/styled games. This is new and developed over past 6 months or so.
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@MAZing, Aye, its infuriating. Every position i take overnite gets jacked, and I mean every damn thing, even 'sure bets.' Just rekd. I give up holding so miss most of the moves, large part of price change is AH, u pick up crumbs in reg session. Price manipulation, no-win.
jakslo23
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Hi, you are out today? Don't let them make you doubt yourself. Today is a good day for the short, the only thing is if this short will be good for the short-term or long-term.
digicool
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Like the 620 target on this move up. But they test the 690 again before GDP print in the AM.
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My understanding is, he sounded hawkish by mentioning a recession is necessary to get prices under control even though he did not say that word. EOM window dressing likely happening because July was bullish. If GDP is negative, headlines should create a selloff which will then be bot again. I think as it is, this is overbot. I stopped myself out with a net -50pt but I dont think NQ clears 695.
MAZing
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@digicool, EOM is key, I missed that. I usually do not trade on Fed Day. I also go Short big 1-2 days early, so as usual this may come back down (as usual).