Based on the data from VXN we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 25.01%, equal to last week. This can be translated in +/- 3.47% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel TOP: 12640 BOT: 11788 The probability to break this channel(aka the close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at
If we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the VXN( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filter to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be: 84% according to the last 20 years of data 100% according to the data since 2022( I would recommend the 87% instead) So we can use this data instead for proper calculation of our trading plan
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information: Currently there is a : 78% to touch the previous weekly high 26% to touch the previous weekly low
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see : 4H Timeframe: +53% Bullish Trend D Timeframe: +66% Bullish Trend W Timeframe: -26% Bearish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move: 3.37% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario 3.4% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario