My early followers know i have been waiting for a very long time now for the US markets to finally make their drop and actually even start the bear market. But from my own experience i know these things can be postponed to extremes even. A valuable lesson i learned in my early years of trading, don't fight a market. No need to go long of your view is down, but at least don't keep shorting it because you think it has to drop.
Now i know allot of people are already looking to buy the dip again and think this was just another drop like we have seen earlier this year (yellow circle), i am not that bullish though. Allot depends on the coming week or 2 probably. I will be watching the price closely the coming days to see how it will move, if we see a movement like we can see on the right,than the chances increase allot that we see another wave down. Depending on the violence of that drop, we can judge if it will become a higher low, a low just below the 6900 or that we will see another impulse wave down. For now i want to see resistance around the current levels, I don't expect a single attempt so i will wait for the second attempt before shorting it. Ideally the price stays below the 6450, but when we move above the 7500ish i will throw the short term bearish view out of the window.
Now i know allot of people are already looking to buy the dip again and think this was just another drop like we have seen earlier this year (yellow circle), i am not that bullish though. Allot depends on the coming week or 2 probably. I will be watching the price closely the coming days to see how it will move, if we see a movement like we can see on the right,than the chances increase allot that we see another wave down. Depending on the violence of that drop, we can judge if it will become a higher low, a low just below the 6900 or that we will see another impulse wave down. For now i want to see resistance around the current levels, I don't expect a single attempt so i will wait for the second attempt before shorting it. Ideally the price stays below the 6450, but when we move above the 7500ish i will throw the short term bearish view out of the window.
Comment:
So far it's following the red line perfectly, so best case we see a small move up again tomorrow and a slow move towards today's low again. if that happens, we can expect it to accelerate down again. If it breaks today's low, it should not get above the high again!
Comment:
2 options here,
1) market is/was to weak to make that small leg up again and will continue to drop.
2) this might become a bull flag and would make that leg up to the red zone before dropping.
Of course, do not want it to become a real bull flag, that would mean we will break that red zone and continue higher.
Think the green and red are the levels to watch for the bulls and bears
1) market is/was to weak to make that small leg up again and will continue to drop.
2) this might become a bull flag and would make that leg up to the red zone before dropping.
Of course, do not want it to become a real bull flag, that would mean we will break that red zone and continue higher.
Think the green and red are the levels to watch for the bulls and bears
Comment:
So scenario 1 did it's work, the market was to weak to make another attempt to move up. Think we will see at least another move towards the 7000/7050, even in the bullish version. Bearish version, we will just continue to drop.
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