My early followers know i have been waiting for a very long time now for the US markets to finally make their drop and actually even start the bear market. But from my own experience i know these things can be postponed to extremes even. A valuable lesson i learned in my early years of trading, don't fight a market. No need to go long of your view is down, but at least don't keep shorting it because you think it has to drop.
Now i know allot of people are already looking to buy the dip again and think this was just another drop like we have seen earlier this year (yellow circle), i am not that bullish though. Allot depends on the coming week or 2 probably. I will be watching the price closely the coming days to see how it will move, if we see a movement like we can see on the right,than the chances increase allot that we see another wave down. Depending on the violence of that drop, we can judge if it will become a higher low, a low just below the 6900 or that we will see another impulse wave down. For now i want to see resistance around the current levels, I don't expect a single attempt so i will wait for the second attempt before shorting it. Ideally the price stays below the 6450, but when we move above the 7500ish i will throw the short term bearish view out of the window.
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Previous NDX analysis
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So far it's following the red line perfectly, so best case we see a small move up again tomorrow and a slow move towards today's low again. if that happens, we can expect it to accelerate down again. If it breaks today's low, it should not get above the high again!
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2 options here,
1) market is/was to weak to make that small leg up again and will continue to drop. 2) this might become a bull flag and would make that leg up to the red zone before dropping.
Of course, do not want it to become a real bull flag, that would mean we will break that red zone and continue higher.
Think the green and red are the levels to watch for the bulls and bears
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So scenario 1 did it's work, the market was to weak to make another attempt to move up. Think we will see at least another move towards the 7000/7050, even in the bullish version. Bearish version, we will just continue to drop.
@gohanisrice, Yes and no, it could be a test though. When we start to see good earnings go without bullish movements, that will probably tell us where the market wants to go. If they do go up with good news, than it's probably too early for the bear market.
gohanisrice
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@botje11,
Thanks for your reply. I think the market is driven simply by sentiment at this point so that is why I think earnings will play a key role. NFLX definitely got things started nice. Personally I have trailing stop losses and waiting for (fingers crossed) for a blow off top.
Anyway botje11, love your BTC analysis. You're the best out there. Thanks for all you do.
joeychaps1231
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Despite pretty strong earnings across the board it’s still looking weak, although today looks like will rebound somewhaT
Aztrading
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bedankt,
Aztrading
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echt goed,
Earthboundmisfit
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NTFX may have bought them some time. It shouldn't but might give misguided optimism. Thats the american market, a company that makes no money and won't till there are huge compitition players.