We have a massive week ahead with earnings from the Mega Caps and the much anticipated FOMC July rate decision. The week is setting up to either establish the bottom or take the market to new lows. Anyone claiming to know what is going to happen is not a trader. The confluence of data and global events have the market poised to explode in either direction or continue to chop in a wide range. The only edge we have is to observe and act when the market shows its hand at the key levels. Below are a few points I will be considering going into the week ahead. Please note that I will be away at a cabin for the week so updates will not be as frequent as usual (bad week for a vacay I know). Good luck and happy trading.
• Last week had a 820 point range and closed up 3.46% • Finished first full week of earnings highlighted by a TSLA beat and positive reaction followed by a SNAP miss and a drop of +35%. • Preliminary GDP data coming out on Friday with Core PCE data. • Massive earning week ahead with GOOG, AMZN, AAPL all reporting along with many other highly watched stocks like CVX, XOM & many consumer staple names like KO & PG. • FOMC meeting also on tap with July’s rate decision and commentary on Wednesday. • Oil prices pulling back, yields have dropped and commodities have weakened. All may cause the Fed to soften their hawkish tone. • Market currently stuck between fear of inflation and fear of recession. • With a combination of FED news, Data drops and Big Name Earnings expect large price moves in either direction and elevated volatility. • This could be the week that lets us know if the bottom is in or send the market to new lows. • Important week to exercise patience and discipline
Weekly Events
Monday Nothing notable Tuesday US New Home Sales, US CB Confidence Wednesday US Durable Goods, US EIA Crude Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision and Commentary Thursday US GDP QoQ Advance, US Initial Jobless Claims Friday Canadian GDP, US Consumer Spending, University of Mich. Sentiment, US Core PCE
Basing pattern forming Max negative sentiment = potential short squeeze Above 55 ema coming off fairly strong week Nasdaq above 9/21 ema cloud Potential positive earnings momentum Potential positive guidance from AAPL, AMZN, GOOG ect. Potential positive reaction to the FOMC
BEARISH NOTES
Fed is tightening into a weakening economy Max neg. sentiment may lead to self fulfilling prophecy Possible negative earnings momentum Earnings estimates likely to be revised lower Potential negative guidance from AAPL, AMZN, GOOG ect. Outlier event shock risk is still high Potential Neg reaction to FOMC Current rally coming into more overhead resistance.
Comment
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Nice finish to the week. Many of the Bullish Notes from the Weekend Post played out nicely. Positive reactions to FOMC, Earnings Momentum & Short Squeeze into the end of the month. Price finished at the 382 Fib and the Jun 3rd pivot. Note how the key moving averages line up to the FIBs. 100 SMA sitting at the 382 FIB and the 200 SMA sitting at the 618 Fib. At strong resistance now but if price can break through the 382 FIB a move the 618 is possible.