NQ1 and current contract are off 100 points, new contract (June is out on 3-17). Going to zoom out this Post. NAZ did move 700 points last week and is at bottom of last forecast. Still looking long as the struggle to get lower is still apparent. Not to mention the O/N prop lifts and Dead Zone busywork drop offsets. Last week's range was 700 hundred, if you intraday you will see 300-400 per day and that is the focus now. On this Post, Long above yellow shaded Box and Short below (keep in mind the NQ1 is off 100 points). Charts below are longer view and I will update intraday as I can throughout the week. Again, Forecast is a guide and not a guarantee. The Intraday movement is the opportunity/challenge as you can't turn your back on any move these days. The 1 dimensional trader/author, not sure what they are doing/thinking these days.
Note: For those that follow, after 3 years and 500 Daily TV Post's, I will be ending the Daily Forecast & Intraday free service. I am moving to a private service that will use TradingView Charts, including my IDS Indicators. Message me if you have interest. I will continue some weekly post's through the end of March or until new program is ready. Thanks for following and all your support.
Chart below, Yellow Zone has been a support channel for a few years.
Another Bridge that fell.
Angle, 3 peaks and lower. Looking for 3 bottom and Pop.
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KL's for the week. Long above Yellow Box and Short below. Shaded zones are retest targets. Usually a big countermove starts with a one sided weak play, this appears to be already in the works from Friday final minutes and brief after hours. Just watch the tricks this week, they will be out and trying hard. Again, limited updates intraday unless I have the time.
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NQH on all KL charts this week as NQ1 is off or changing KL's. Chart above and any KL charts I post. CME Group contract volume was very high on Friday and Open Interest was up. High volume down day, what we are looking for. This is for either direction.
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Volume Fact: QQQ 3rd lowest weekly volume had the highest weekly percentage move up YTD (4.5%). If you go back you will see that the O/N NQ filled the gap with afterhours propping which would displace the volume from Regular Session and place it in the Magic O/N (middle of night) fake zone. Games and Tricks, not sure why nobody talks about this. Price Action with Volume is the best indicator. Use KL''s and let your trades play out.
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150 move in 1st 30M of O/N, Just so predictable. May drop from here or be O/N High. 280 and 130 are next if not.
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Rigged so be careful if you are looking Short early.
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Back in morning. Regardless of any negative world markets the NAZ Riggers will keep NAZ stabilized as close as they can til Open Session. Open Session may get tricked into going Long and at any stall the 1st drop test will show up. NAZ dropping prior to Open would be ugly.
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No Fed No Rally, SBV Bailout is Fed and NAZ pops 200 points. Go Long as Fed = Rally. Was expecting relief pop and Not the Fed, extra bonus.
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Likely Open Range
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EU are down big, O/N lift was just another drop offset.
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Set trades at KL's and let them retest other KL's, take profit at hits.
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IDS20 set ups
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10YN Yield up big, VIX up 12%. Open will be wild, EU are lower 2-3%
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FED backstop of Banks may actually make markets more skittish. May see the system/exchanges breakdown today.
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Going to need Magic Dust, Bigfoot, the Tooth fairy and all magical players to work the magic!! BTD/FOMO's will bail. DZ will try and fail to lift this one.
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I have been showing the 11600 zone as a target. The yellow arrow may be the Open Session range should us follow other world markets. The O/N Riggers may be just holding/stabilizing until the Open.
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11890 -11680 is Range.
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Updated Targets, many have already been HIT. These are next moves.
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Staying in Range
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11880 may drop
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880 dropping, under 963 back to 680
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Needs to get under 840 and stay under for 680.
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Trust nothing on way up. Will need to retest lower to confirm the SUPPORT. Back Later, DZ will use Magic and fairy dust doe be careful.
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May try 963 again, No pass, back to 840. Rack up points in the Channel.
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Typical DZ Lift and drop offset so far. Not sure this will get above O/N High of 12100 but may try.
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KL's above 840, look for stall out as most likely will drop again today.
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Turd Signal
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Hammer Short at No Pass above Turd Top.
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Watch as Turds get Flushed on Super High Ticks. They just rope in the Easy Traders and whip them silly.
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50 above Turd top and rotating. The arrow is range that will be in play should NAZ stay under 12100. Float up is typical and could be short set up to retest back lower.
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Short to 11900, past 963
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Needs to break O/N Range, usually does not. Although nice bounce off 976.
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Circle Zone will be hard to pass.
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963 retest and must Hold or lower We Go.
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Under Turd Top, rotating around.
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3rd Turd needs to get to 1st.
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Looking Like Short Set Up under Arrow.
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Ba Bye, Same tricks day after day after day. Thing is that they work just enough to offset big Drops. Back Later.
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KL's for next few days. Shaded are high probability Zones. NAZ will move to one or other. Upper rejection will drop to lower and lower hold may pop to upper.
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250 is next pass needed for the Long Side. Monday's are usually bullish, keep it in mind and expect some whipsaw.
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250 Hit and rejected once. These are trades.
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No Pass at 050 will try 940
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Heavy Duty Divergence at 025. Watch the Snap out NAZ may breakout here, DV is hard to read. I would think the NAZ will drop as most of this is fake. Back Later.
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Retest #3 at 050, needs to pass 12100 now, watch the head fake if you are Long. BTD/FOMO trap most likely.
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1 minute until result.
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Sloppy stalling PA, may work. Usually does for an hour or so. If so, this will come back in next day or so. Do not chase this.
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30 minute M is all you need to see.
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When the NAZ can not or does not exceed O/N high or takes all day to try, that is not good. If you are Long do not worry, any drop here will be replaced with lift in the O/N Session. Any lift here, will zoom to the stars in O/N Session, then sell off prior to Open or at Open. Playing Short to Long Reversal for O/N Prop Starz. CPI tomorrow so the Prop Drop Offset in O/N is highly likely. Thinking drop/pop for better Long.
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Yep, same old BS
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Current Game Plan: Short at 12075 to 11940, Then O/N Reverse after stable support to Long for what ever lift they pull, close prior to CPI release and Short the Tuesday Open for DROP.
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closed Short for 110 points at 11965
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Will wait on Long or in O/N.
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Done for day, will check in tomorrow. Rigged.
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They really need to let these markets clean themselves up, Rigged, Bailout, Stimulus, Backstop, etc. KL's for O/N and into Tuesday,
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Partial M, may fill out. Then Long to the Magic Stars in O/N
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If you plan to go Long, do it from one of the KL's
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Note: I use CME Group for Contract. NQ1 is not tradeable as you know. I will be switching to June today, NQM2023 as this is matching NQ1 pricing. Will update chats later. NQH2023 will expire and the June volume is now higher.
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I have seen enough, NQM2023 Long at 12090 with Stop at 11900. Take profit at 12300 on knee jerk FOMO trade. Why fight the herd and the riggers that trick the herd? Could be wrong, got points to burn. NAZ has been balanced and has had many opportunities to get lower, "NAZ struggles to get lower" like I have been saying. This has been the story for over a year. These indexes should be way lower and may get there, just not this week. I will be back mid morning today, good luck.
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Funny, go back to my comment 16 hours ago. Hard to believe it is that easy as that is playing out, again. Sloppy Rigged.
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NQH Game plan 16 HRS ago. Got the Short (long set up) and looking for the moon shot drop/pop, knee jerk BTD/FOMO predictable move.
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When that stalls near Open or after, Strong Short may be the play, but I doubt it.
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NQH, this should be enough space to have stop and catch Long Pop, we will see.
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With the Banking issue, do you think they will pull a bad CPI number? Think about it, that pressure would be the break or should be.
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Stay with it
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Scalp the up/down, not see power move up just yet. May come in Dead Zone Magic Session.
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Back later, I believe the sideways grind is just building strength. May see 1-2 more drop tests then some bigger move higher.
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Above, 12060 NQH stay Long, PB Coming.
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KL's for balance, Shaded are reliable for PB/Targets.
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12060 PB is likely
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Bounced off 106, 1st shaded may pop here.
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VIX, Crude, 10YN all lower with Dollar up, may get strange on stall today.
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Back later, 150 of 200 points up are from O/N, keep on eye on Ticks and O/N high.
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Rig may stall, place trail. 12190 NQH
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12117 pb
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Target Hit
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12190 to 11230 is range on NQH, Short under 12230 at no pass and stay above. 12350 is upper target on Long Pass or stay above 12230.
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Watch for a Turd POP and stall out.
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12160 1st drop test. Under 12230 and then 12190.
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Dead Zone Drop test time, look for 12160 1st
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Watch Ticks under 12190 and ride the wave, NAZ may not return back up.
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Watch the Diablo.
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12160 pass is 12100 next.
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These may bounce, this is Magical Dead Zone. Back Later.
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Ticks pushing hard on DROP.
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Best to just get out at targets, you can always reload.
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Drop may be stop clean out should NAZ pass Diablo.
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On last Drop, you would Go Long above 160 expecting retest of 190 and 220. Have to be quick and I can't type that fast. May recycle few more times on Stall out.
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12160 and 12100 Hit on Drop Test.
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Keep on eye on Diablo.
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I do not see any viable upper targets other than 12230, NAZ may stay under or drop today. Will be back later.
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Back under O/N Rig High
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12060 Shaded Bounce
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Needs to pass 12117
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12117 may reject hard
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Typical Bear market PA.
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Once again only gains in O/N and NOT Open Session. Rigged may pop but getting weak.
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So far yesterday Close play has worked out well, this may sell off by EOD.
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Under 12160 stay Short. Diablo and Top 1st 30M.
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Should NAZ stay Under 12117 look for 11940, Range is 117 to 160 for next move.
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BTD/FOMO Head Fake, so easy.
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KL Update, Shaded are lower targets. May hit 1st prior to a lift. This actually would be preferred for a serious Long. On Hold.
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Here we GO, below most likely.
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OK, here you can see that NAZ nit the lower Shaded and di pop up to Upper and Diablo. You need to expect these types of moves if you follow my trade/set ups. I did mention Drop/Pop. This is typical of an O/N Rig Long Set Up.
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This will no go to 12230
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O/N to Rig higher and NAZ needs to stay above Diablo and KL 12117. Will update more tomorrow.
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Arrow is strong Support and is near/above KL 12027
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Since 12040 held, look for Rig to 12230 and 12360
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White Box is strong sideways consolidation support and is why I am Long This week. Long above and Short below.
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Great book's that would help: Mind Over Markets and Markets in Profile, Dalton. Start now as it will take a few years to get this cold.
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Many of you have been following me for a year or longer. By now you should see that the 1st move of the NAZ is a set up for the 2nd bigger move (usually). The whipsaw is the trade and is a package deal. Embrace it and and enjoy it, just need to practice some and it will flow.
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Updated current Contract which is also NQ1 values. Shaded are KL's that are targets above and below. Look for opposite direction trades at Hits (after confirm).
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3/15 NQ1 Shaded Zones prior to Hits. You can see the NAZ went up (setting up opposite direction trade) and then lower.
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I remove the Shaded Zones that got hit, this leaves the next viable targets (yellow arrow). Need to see which one the NAZ will pick. Most likely 12169 next.
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KL's and 12305 is likely retest, at some point and most likely Dead Zone Magic Prop (expect it),if so Short on Stall.
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Update, No Long just yet.
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Watch 12180 - 12030 for next range or drop under 12180.
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I will be out this morning, play the range. Yesterday's Close Pop looks like another Drop Offset, RIGGED. Flash Crash in not out of the cards, just think we need that.
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12180-40 is No Trade Zone
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12200 and below is area to watch.
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12140 seems to be amazing support as is being defended. I would say that Long above for a scalp and strong Short below should NAZ get under and not get back above.
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12140 did pop to 12210, may be last pop for the day or morning.
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A lower O/N session is very when NAZ is lower more than 1%, this may get ugly or be 1 way lower day, Careful on Dip Buying today.
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NAZ to 12305 or 12100, Next
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NAZ has some very strange upward PA today, just will not drop on very negative Ticks, This may breakdown later, Careful Shorting until.
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Crude way off, Dollar Up, NAZ should be way lower, Rigged. Flat for now, will check back later.
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Stay out, This is not tradable.
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12140 and above Scalp appears to be working. Strong Short blow.
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Whites are Shorts at no pass of highest peak and same on Reds for Longs.
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306 may be it
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Pretty sure NAZ will Break 140 after Dead Zone. Can Go Short with Stop above 310, if you are Shorting, watch Ticks. Long too and reverse at stall. Pass 306, let it run.
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12306 hit, watch 327 and stall out.
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Updated KL's, watch 12100 on Drop. Trail Long Until.
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Hard to do, you need to place trades at KL's going in your direction. Let run Scalp and repeat until the move plays out. May have 1-3 trade scalps prior to bigger move/target. 12140 Long and now 12306 Short. PA is just doing nothing but playing in the KL Zones.
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Like I have been saying, the O/N and Dead Zone are being used to offset any and all drops. This should play out.
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NAZ is pretty balanced past 2 days, updated KL's. Close scalp when you see the counter move. The Circle is 1st 30M past 2 days (lines, top. mid, bottom). A break out of zone will be a big move.
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Potential moves, needs to be quick and watch out for head fake long. Yesterday we had the drop/pop. Today may be head fake to that or pop/drop.
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Kind of funny, I have seen these types of days just wiggle so much that they confuse & shake you out of the correct trade. Vertigo!
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12240 Shaded Zone is Hit.
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12180 should be next, I just can't see how it would not. Anyway Scalp the Short at 240 from 280, for now.
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240 to 310, 310 to 12180?? You get the idea.
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12327 pass goes to 12380, for you BTD's
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Short with a Stop or Sit Out on this one. May wan to wait until final hour or so until these fake wiggles subside.
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POC, Value Area's are dropping some , from yesterday. Very slight, may be nothing or the start of drop. Why is NAZ stalling if so strong?
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290 and under is Short
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290 Turd Try Here, may work hold on short for now.
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Turd gets flushed trail it. Many times these will trick traders and BTD's
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No Short for now, Buy this if you want I am waiting on this one. 315 and up looks fake.
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380 HIT. for you Longs. Carful 305 and up may come back to retest.
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Edge Trade Short from 12380, target 12300ish.
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Stop 40-50 up from 380 or 12400
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The entire day just seems too convenient to lift, worth the risk to go Counter on this one. If stopped will reload, back later.
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Stop at 380
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Stopped no loss.
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409 will hold NAZ
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under 409, target 300
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Normally I do not use stops, today has had a strange lift, all day.
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O/N, DZ and Close are Random and usually whippy then they drop. Trying to get this one in O/N to Pump up.
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Done for day, will check in tomorrow. This is a Long Trap.
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Trapped, lets see.
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380 got to 310, funny. Every move has a counter that is equal, this is about as hard as it gets. Need to be super fast.
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This will need to race up and it may from 320. Won't get passed 380.
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Delayed Turd Flush of 290. See how they take it about 50-100 points above Turd Start, need to gage that better. Normally it is 50, today is special as they really want to offset.
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Back to Turd Top. Needs to stay above
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Every move has a counter move of equal distance. This is crazy. KL's for O/N, target 12480 or even 12680. Short near Open Session. Shaded Zone trades are new and have been very reliable. Targets and reverses, the opposite to next. Just fast and need to place immediately after a Hit almost.
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White Box again. Long above this thing.
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NAZ with another final 10 minute 100 point pop. Volume is decent, we may see some Long movement or this is just a set up Short. I am looking long for the week, PA just seems to be jittery. May see a huge Prop move tonight, prior to higher Open or then massive drop in tomorrow's regular session. No drop in Regular and we have a true push higher.
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KL's and remaining shaded Zone into tomorrow. May retest 380.
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Asia markets are lower, still not quite understanding the US Lift in Futures or the NAZ EOD rally. Most likely looking Short at 1st stall out, pre Open.
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Overnight Update, NAZ did drop to 12390 (bounced, may try 380), appears to be in 50-60 point range, EU Up Asian closed lower. NAZ Dip buying appears to ne back, need to see some push/pull for any shorting to work out.
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KL's, looks like strange support yesterday at 12140 was looking at 12700-800. I believe that is where we are going. About 800 points in 3-4 days. Will check back near Open.
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May be the play, let's see
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12385 Hit, Watch 380 level. Looks like another strong strange zone.
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Strong buy Zone is 12360-30, Drop/Pop at Open and a stall above O/N high may see sideways to lower. Not feeling Short play, besides if NAZ does drop they will just pump it 100 plus points in final 5 minutes of the day.
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380 Hit
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Above 380 we should see 480, stall at 480 and expect drop test. Below 380, 360-30 should hold for 480 attempt. NAZ moves in 80-100 point lots, like 460 drop to 380. Any deeper drop should come after the upper test like 450-480.
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Other play is white arrow. Yellow dash are POC's of VA's. Remember, most times the will not get and stay above the O/N high. White arrow may play out today. Could be just another Long Close set up, if so. Currently every move has a counter of equal distance.
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Past few trades have been Long Scalps from KL 12380 or above. You could of shorted to 380 from above (when I called it), then at KL (380) go long with stop until 380 breaks. KL trades are 20-30 point scalps and do add up while the NAZ relatively goes nowhere. Markets channel or bracket (sideways) 70% of the time. Actually more points here than the rare and illusive runner that you have 1 shot and have to be perfect. Anyway, the KL's set this type of trading up.
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Above Note: the 380 Long scalp is good for 2-3 and after than 380 may break.
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Depending on the other indexes, 420 may be high set up for the 327 target. Keep in mind when/should 380 break.
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Switching to Shorts now, back after Open.
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12400 has been strong resistance, may see struggle today. Did not Short or call Short, looks like 380 is like 12140 was yesterday.
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Mellow Yellow arrow is playing out. Watch my shaded zones on way up.
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retest to 330 is possible.
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280 Zone hit from under, watch 330-380 until break.
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Open Range is complete, will move above, inside and such. Stall may fall today under O/N High.
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If you are watching, NAZ is just taking out shaded zone after zone. Below chart is what is left and stall out would head lower. NAZ still is in same O/N Range.
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460 pull back
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12460 is only PB Zone.
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12704 is target High
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NAZ will trade between 12600-700, current high 12668 and close to 12704 target.
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12600 hit and bouncing.
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Needs to pass 640 or back to 590.
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NAZ way above other indexes.
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Range 590 - 650, closing Long at 12635
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Push/Pull showing up. May get whippy.
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590 break, 550 is next.
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Dips being bought, this may go to the moon and beyond. Good luck and hang on.
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IDS Divergence (some), drop may not happen or from 12700.
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Turd, could break if gets below 660.
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Turd Test and Flush??
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So 680 is 45 above 35 (my out). This is normal as they tend to lift it 50-100 above prior to drop. May not happen, just a pattern. Mentioned 12600-700 as range, stay with it.
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10YN yield going Up, may see some profit taking by EOD as NAZ is up big in few days and near recent high. No stall and this will keep going. Back later. I get out because I use 5 or more contracts and get nervous when this things slightly stalls.
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The other clue is why would we see a Turd here? No Turds all the way up.
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IDS20, early Divergence Signal. Under 690 should drop if the Lower does not fill out.
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590 should be next
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Held at 637, Watch the Turd zone 635 to top.
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633 that time
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Under 690 should go 590
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NAZ needs another 100 points, lower then up or just lower. 640 Break is lower.
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590 or 810
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Perfect channel looks a bit fake.
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above 665 should go to 810, watch Ticks. 30 point stop. Long Trade. Next 100.
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one more final 10 minute push and we can Short tomorrow.
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relatively low point day for the NAZ, will make it one way or another.
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680 stop
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very strange past 3 days, on at 680 and stop at 680.
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NAZ up 14% YTD, should see Pull Back 15 or so.
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690 retest should pop
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Popping/holding on normal Ticks, crazy. POC is way below. May trail this on quick pop move.
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Stop at 12705
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12800 Take profit, will be quick.
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12730 out Plus 50
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740 no pass may try 630.
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Final 10m may be dropper today. Will update in morning.
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Today was all Dead Zone. DZ is lower volume but "longer timeframe" trader's. These type of moves are backed with big long term money. Should this not hold, I would be surprised. Strong conviction here and explains the strong support from 12140 that was puzzling me (
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Box Support that started it.
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I find this interesting and may be a bit cautious. While today was broad based and strong, the shaded zones will (or have been) may be retested. I am glad that I did not see this during the day, I may have gone short. There are many failed auctions below, these will usually retest. Just something to watch for.
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Note: So the system/technique that I use to forecast has been accurate. The chart below shows weekly POC (yellow dash), value area high/low (purpleish) and we are way above, currently. The pop up has retest zones which are shaded. The zones usually get retested (can take days or weeks), depending if POC moves up and VA expands. Price is way above value at this time and will most likely move back to value. This and the fact that the NAZ has moved 1,000 points in 4 days. I may expect a 150-200 point pull back, may be quick drop/test.
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The other item is the up/down price action that you will see in a range bar chart, I have never seen this before. Not sure what this is, and has been showing up this week. Gut feeling is that this is a major prop prior to "sell in May and go away". Ride it but get ready to fade it.
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Diablo and expected range, could be wrong and the one sided lift may just continue up. I will say that any drop of any size will most likely be bought quickly, just not sure if it will reach much above 12810. Good luck today and I will be out from late morning, on.
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12680 break should go to 12590.
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You would Short near 12730-50 after stall. Back later.
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Look for 630 next
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retrace to 12700 likely, stall drop to 630.
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DAX had a gap fill, NAZ may pop some.
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NAZ needs to get below 12692 for bigger drop. Not sure what is holding it up.
Trade closed manually
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12810 Hit and Short Trade at no pass. The drop to 660 was long set up to hit target and may now decline at no pass of 810. Tricky, don't look at me. Out for balance, have a great weekend.
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12630 Hit and 590, this may pop up some. These are the retests so far more below.
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Ya think the system is Rigged? Sure, they just love the BTD's and FOMO's
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Long scalp above 660
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12590 Hit and 660 rejected, will try again. Range for day and may stay inside. Out of office from here. Watch the snap drop if you do go Long/Scalp. The 660 Long had to pass/retest and stay above to go, it hit and dropped. You all should know this by now.
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Quick note: Another way to use my info is to take opposite directions trades at/from KL's that I mention. Example: Short at 12810, regardless of what you may think, stop above. Short Target is KL 12590, reverse at 590 (after hold/confirm), stop behind 590. The issue with 12660 is that everybody wants to take it Long and they get whipsawed. Not a bad trade, but taking it from 590 would be better. No pass at 660 and 590 and below is target Short. At 2-3 hits of 660 and no pass, Short to 590 and below is trade. I will provide more in private group, hard to update here. You go review over 500 post's to check the success of KL Opposite Direction trades. The magic with trading is with the Entry/Exit and the KL's are the only thing you need. I started with Short/Cover, missed pop Long, got Short lower and was out at KL 590, flat now. 12510 is top of weekly VA and NAZ may go there should it not pass 660-90.
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IDS20 View
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Updated Zones, watch how these play out, got to catch a flight. Good Luck.
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Here, assume you are Long from 590 and trying to pas 690 (bottom 1st 30M). Passing that is 730, failure there is 12520 (should 690, 660 and low not hold). It is like a game.
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Last Note: If you play today well, it will generate more points than yesterday and the NAZ is only lower .40%. Much more to go.
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Weekly VA came up 60 points to 12580. 12590 held for 2 hits, morning Short was the best trade. Still somewhat wonder why NAZ just will not drop big.
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IDS100 Week view, Notice divergence in Lower and Price, Drop/Pop.