Prior to the beginning - I would point out the NQ has given back 100+ Ticks in the Final hour in prior Sessions. Sellers remain on the Hourly Timeframe End of Day - Volumes Support the SELL as being more than a simple Profit-taking event, but a larger and continuing Distribution.
As well, the ES gave up 50% from its highs yesterday, falling short of the Gap Fill. The YM fell back 200+ Ticks. Sellers remain as the Hourly is attempting to turn Up to imbue the Bulls that we are out of the Loggins Danger Zone.
We are not quite yet for a number of reasons and conditions we will discuss this in detail.
This will be NASDAQ-centric, as it has the most to gain and to lose. The YM / RTY are trading on their own, the ES is more closely aligned to the NQ and the VIX.
These Price actions and divergences are important between Indexes as the rotation trades continue.
Technically, the attempt to Fill the Gap is underway.
It failed yesterday, it is, however - Friday. Which suggests the potential for more extreme Price action is on deck.
We have conflicting Information on varying Timeframes:
The hourly as mentioned above is attempting to move Higher, the Daily/Weekly remain in a Net Negative Position.
We see 3 Potential Outcomes, which require Patience... and suggest patience pays quite often here. Simply because it does protect Traders from Biases formed during large declines in Price for which the NQ saw 5%+ come off the Top of the Range while BTD Retailers were howling for 18,000. Gap and Don't Look Back
Implication: The lows at 14367 were it, Price will now move higher back to all-time highs once again. It worked for 18 Months and it will continue. The correction was merely a release of optimism in excess.
Unfortunately, No. Yesterday is today is tomorrow works when Sentiment is increasing. This Selloff came on declining Investor Sentiment, a very real loss of Confidence, and a late-stage rally on the extremely poor breadth and declining Volumes. AMZN was the first to give up the Ghost and did it.
According to the Bulls - it's back to all-time highs.
This requires a large amount of work for Price and ignores a great many Fundamental Macro Factors BUlls have dismissed for a lengthy period of time.
Gap to Fill to Range into Break
It is too early to know as this would develop over time, can Price chop in a large range for weeks to a month into November?
It would require a number of conditions - the 21/34/50EMAs would need to begin to turn up on Larger TF's to flatten out ever so slightly. Oscillators would need to remove the extremely Negative conditions don't the WEEKLY TF.
The 50EMAs on the DAILY TF would need to be broken and hold Price between 21/34/50EMAs which are compressing and relatively tight.
Price would need to range into a Break Up or Down.
We saw the NQ Retrace over the .500 and onto the -.382 yesterday on the draw from 15399 to 14367. It did not however complete the .500 if the larger Full Range Draw from 15708 to 14367.
Price will decide as Price provides further evidence as to the complexity of this Retracement.
Gap and Trap to Fail
IN a downtrend, the 21/34/50 tend to provide Resistance.
The Levels act as a ceiling typically, although we have seen a great many over-throws of Resistance only to Trap Buyers @ Highs as Price reverses adding further Energy for downside Momentum as the "Oh Sh_t" point of recognition becomes a momentary lapse of reason for the first few Dunks... they buy the Dip until it stops working, which adds further Energy as they have not only compounded their Capital Issues, but engendered the rest of the BTD Herd with bravado as they chase their averages lower... until the losses compound to such a degree, they become the Egg People and SELL at the Lows.
We have seen this time and again. Inexperienced Investors wander and make all sorts of "pronouncements" Nasdaq 18K", "Dow 37K", "ES 5000" - Eggo's in the toaster... is what they quickly become. Undeterred, they begin calling bottoms. And upon any retracement of any size... the BUll is Back Baby~!
This has always been Degenerate Gambling with little to no patience of any kind, simply a self-fulfilling YOLO prophecy which paid the Bills for awhile.
In 2002, all that will change as a 50% correction will begin after we complete 5/5. The DG's will finally be pummeled to the point of prior generational lessons learned. It is simply our nature, short memories and high expectations.
"I'm a winner~!"
In the Age of everyone gets a trophy, the gene pool becomes murky in the Deeper end of the kiddie pool, which seems to be endless in length. The needs for Chlorine are immense as the waters are contaminated with fecal matter.
Enough about PYS, onto the what Price is up to.
We are waiting to see if Price pivots to the Larger Daily Draw from 15708 to 14367.
Today is Pivotal as next week is all about Inflation by the Numbers.
More time will be required, perhaps into Tuesday... to determine how the underlying Structure is shaping up.
Prior to the beginning - I would point out the NQ has given back 100+ Ticks in the Final hour in prior Sessions. Sellers remain on the Hourly Timeframe End of Day - Volumes Support the SELL as being more than a simple Profit-taking event, but a larger and continuing Distribution.
As well, the ES gave up 50% from its highs yesterday, falling short of the Gap Fill. The YM fell back 200+ Ticks. Sellers remain as the Hourly is attempting to turn Up to imbue the Bulls that we are out of the Loggins Danger Zone.
We are not quite yet for a number of reasons and conditions we will discuss this in detail.
This will be NASDAQ-centric, as it has the most to gain and to lose. The YM / RTY are trading on their own, the ES is more closely aligned to the NQ and the VIX.
These Price actions and divergences are important between Indexes as the rotation trades continue.
Technically, the attempt to Fill the Gap is underway.
It failed yesterday, it is, however - Friday. Which suggests the potential for more extreme Price action is on deck.
We have conflicting Information on varying Timeframes:
The hourly as mentioned above is attempting to move Higher, the Daily/Weekly remain in a Net Negative Position.
We see 3 Potential Outcomes, which require Patience... and suggest patience pays quite often here. Simply because it does protect Traders from Biases formed during large declines in Price for which the NQ saw 5%+ come off the Top of the Range while BTD Retailers were howling for 18,000. Gap and Don't Look Back
Implication: The lows at 14367 were it, Price will now move higher back to all-time highs once again. It worked for 18 Months and it will continue. The correction was merely a release of optimism in excess.
Unfortunately, No. Yesterday is today is tomorrow works when Sentiment is increasing. This Selloff came on declining Investor Sentiment, a very real loss of Confidence, and a late-stage rally on the extremely poor breadth and declining Volumes. AMZN was the first to give up the Ghost and did it.
According to the Bulls - it's back to all-time highs.
This requires a large amount of work for Price and ignores a great many Fundamental Macro Factors BUlls have dismissed for a lengthy period of time.
Gap to Fill to Range into Break
It is too early to know as this would develop over time, can Price chop in a large range for weeks to a month into November?
It would require a number of conditions - the 21/34/50EMAs would need to begin to turn up on Larger TF's to flatten out ever so slightly. Oscillators would need to remove the extremely Negative conditions don't the WEEKLY TF.
The 50EMAs on the DAILY TF would need to be broken and hold Price between 21/34/50EMAs which are compressing and relatively tight.
Price would need to range into a Break Up or Down.
We saw the NQ Retrace over the .500 and onto the -.382 yesterday on the draw from 15399 to 14367. It did not however complete the .500 if the larger Full Range Draw from 15708 to 14367.
Price will decide as Price provides further evidence as to the complexity of this Retracement.
Gap and Trap to Fail
IN a downtrend, the 21/34/50 tend to provide Resistance.
The Levels act as a ceiling typically, although we have seen a great many over-throws of Resistance only to Trap Buyers @ Highs as Price reverses adding further Energy for downside Momentum as the "Oh Sh_t" point of recognition becomes a momentary lapse of reason for the first few Dunks... they buy the Dip until it stops working, which adds further Energy as they have not only compounded their Capital Issues, but engendered the rest of the BTD Herd with bravado as they chase their averages lower... until the losses compound to such a degree, they become the Egg People and SELL at the Lows.
We have seen this time and again. Inexperienced Investors wander and make all sorts of "pronouncements" Nasdaq 18K", "Dow 37K", "ES 5000" - Eggo's in the toaster... is what they quickly become. Undeterred, they begin calling bottoms. And upon any retracement of any size... the BUll is Back Baby~!
This has always been Degenerate Gambling with little to no patience of any kind, simply a self-fulfilling YOLO prophecy which paid the Bills for awhile.
In 2002, all that will change as a 50% correction will begin after we complete 5/5. The DG's will finally be pummeled to the point of prior generational lessons learned. It is simply our nature, short memories and high expectations.
"I'm a winner~!"
In the Age of everyone gets a trophy, the gene pool becomes murky in the Deeper end of the kiddie pool, which seems to be endless in length. The needs for Chlorine are immense as the waters are contaminated with fecal matter.
Enough about PYS, onto the what Price is up to.
We are waiting to see if Price pivots to the Larger Daily Draw from 15708 to 14367.
Today is Pivotal as next week is all about Inflation by the Numbers.
More time will be required, perhaps into Tuesday... to determine how the underlying Structure is shaping up.
My belief is we see Price head to the 200SMAs and break them after another Counter Trend off the 200SMAs, towards the 400SMAs.
This would land the ES at 3850 to 3912 to 3982...
The NQ the mid to lower 12Ks.
The YM, 28.2 to 30 to 31K.
We caught the easy $ on our projected decline... Hanging on to it here and giving it time to resolve... is wise IMHO.
There is an extraordinary amount of Fundamental Influences ahead. They have yet to be told, we have covered them repeatedly. Go Back and read prior commentaries if you recently arrived, thank you.
The VIX and VXN - the levels are in prior commentary...
This will be today's only update as more information needs to be observed for Price.
I'll leave you with, what else... Patience.
Thank you and have a Blessed Weekend.
- HK
Comment
⋅
10Yr Note Yield trades 1.601
Comment
⋅
Coupons Today are $12.24 Billion.
Comment
⋅
The VIX is trading Support ST @ 19.80.
Comment
⋅
VIX Breaks Support at 19.80.
Comment
⋅
1.601 - 10Yr relentless...
Comment
⋅
High after High for 10YR 1.607 Level to watch, 1.634 is the break of 1.633 Pivot for ROC higher.
Comment
⋅
10Yr 1.617 new high.
Comment
⋅
1.633 can create a very large reaction in the Futures Mkts.
The Equity Complex requires constant monitoring to
get one's mind wrapped into it.
It is constantly in Flux with new nuances Daily.
The over-arching Fundamentals are Bombs which
can go off at any time... We are in a Heavy News Cycle
which will create extreme VX.
HK_L61
⋅
200 SMAs, remain in Trade IMHO.
We will see how today shakes out.
With 10yr Yields SKYing and ROCS building...
It's looking a bit Crashy again :)
Patience though as they very much want the 15.2K Gap Fill
and the money is there for a massive squeeze, Fridays can deliver
one later - after the EU Sesssion Close.
HK_L61
⋅
007s are seeing reality finally.
Wood Paneling replaced by Euro Zone Riot @ SVM.
Slowly, ever so slowly - it is becoming clear Bonds are a Trash Can for
the Bond Kingdom.
EU Session Close - SOH Until, RTs are weak and there is a long Day Ahead, once
the Prop Desks gain some of that $12.24 Billion things will begin to get interesting.
HK_L61
⋅
Apologies for the confusing Cut and Paste, I wrote this half asleep this morning
on No caffeine.
You get the idea.
Again, apologies, the text editor and spell check was giving me sleepy fits.