Last session has retested monthly R1 confluence with the upper edge of the channel. Initial reaction, profit taking. This is all normal and supported by technical analysis. In my view, this is an objective way to look at the market action and remain on the right side of the chart. As the title suggests, the market needs a reason to sell which is a reverse of the current narrative. As of now, I don't see it. Until then, one could buy pullbacks in alignment with smaller timeframe technicals. Rate hikes, shrinking economy, inflation and etc. mess with the trader's mind. They assume that market should be sold and fight the trend. But the most hated upside move remains intact. Reactions(pullbacks) are not reversals. Looking at the chart the most recent breakout, from a highlighted consolidation has negated my previous idea that this is a potential head of an H&S. A pullback to retest the breakout is a buy opportunity. I anticipate a reaction on first test. Mid of the consolidation is a second place to consider buying, confluence with the upside channel mid. Full disclosure: I'm not neither bull or bear. I only follow a typical price action scenarios.
Off the topic.
Regarding the shorting the market. Shorting itself is entertained by hedge funds and retail traders. They want to outsmart the market and gain big returns. The investors don't short they sell the assets to relocate money into other assets. Passive investing, corporate buy-backs, 401k, pension funds only buy. They are a permanent source of keeping the bull market afloat. For those who has an irresistible pull to short learn how to time it well and execute with a precision.
Blow Off Top..Channel Resistance is like road signs in the dark. They're there,but won't stop the determined. This is an almost impossible market to short during the day session. Overnight however, is where the bust will happen. No mans land to the rescue.
SviCapital
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@The_Unwind, I agree, the ON sessions often offer good setups and the price action patterns are cleaner compare to day sessions.
Trebor74
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@The_Unwind, With the recently fashionable buy the dip team, it is difficult to abbreviate NQ!?
Trebor74
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In the case of NQ, it is doubly difficult to time the short well, because FAANG stocks are constantly lurking and represent too much weight?! They say there is always a reason for the NQ to rise. If there is no story, they do it.
You write that retailers do not shorten, but only sell. Do you think only big investors short? Interesting topic, I like your writing, it gives me a deeper picture of the market! Thanks for answering!
SviCapital
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@Trebor74, Indices are born to be bulls - keep it mind. Laggards are replaced to improve the overall performance. I said that hedge funds and retailers short the market. Big investors do not short.
Trebor74
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@SviCapital, Retailers buy every drop. Is that why the short doesn't work?
SviCapital
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@Trebor74, shorts don't work in the long run because of the passive investors.
This is an almost impossible market to short during the day session. Overnight however, is where the bust will happen. No mans land to the rescue.