You have to read my 2/20 post, says it all. The fact is that the O/N and U Turns near Danger Zones continue to play out, like clockwork. So predictable that I am concerned for when this pattern does not work. Chart above is YTD 1 HR with 10.85% range or bracket, thick dash is ML (Mid Level) or Danger Zone. From here we need to expect the Reg Session today to go sideways (so the NAZ can get to O/N) until the next after hours push higher. Should Reg Session lift, do not fight it. Chart Key Levels: 17334 is a TLX of lower channel, 17775 is ML and 18100-200 is upper. 17954-18019 is TZ (turn zone) number 1 and a pass would try 18100-200. Bigger picture is that the O/N is Long and Reg Sessions are sideways to Short. In a sideways Reg Session and near the Close (final hour), start to look Long. Most of the gains in the NAZ come in the O/N. Track it, been Rig Pattern for 2023 and 2024. NAZ is still struggling to get lower but will rocket back up after any weak drop. 17200-300 is Long above and Strong Short below, we just saw the 3rd move up from this zone.
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4HR
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Watch this on 10YN, not saying it will but this has not moved while NAZ gets propped back up. One connection that may break for NAZ move higher.
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IDS27 is showing Air Pocket here at 17900, may drop some if so.
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Good Luck today and will check back later. Many got ripped on this last move as most were looking Short. Then the NAZ rips a 500 pointer (near the Close and into O/N).
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850-830 may be drop pop to 950 and this entire big action (from yesterday) may be followed by a bigger reaction in days to follow. Just keep that in mind as we retest up here
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Open Range 850-950 and good luck, back later
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Update, Turning or stalling at TZ
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NAZ will not drop in Reg Session, may go higher as it gets closer to the Close/O/N. The continued weakness in Reg Session may be a problem should the O/N stop lifting the NAZ.
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M forming on 5 minute, may be nothing or drop set up at 17970
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Watch the 970 M (Magic) for any drop at no pass back up
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100 points from O/N High and Top TZ Level, make or break time. Just love the Dead Zone.
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NAZ needs to get under 18068 and if so will retest KL 18019
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NAZ under 18068 and needs to stay under after 18019 retest
Trade closed manually
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I would think that the O/N may take the night off with aby further lift and leave that to Magic Friday Lift into Monday. Should O/N prop too much that may limit the Friday lift or change direction some. The Reg Session today did manage to lift the NAZ and additional 150 points, impressive. Close should close at high and keep running into O/N.
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I just remembered that this was a short week and Monday volume was made up in this last move, Friday nay be normal or narrow with lift in Sunday/Monday play and back to selling on Tuesday. This has been the pattern for months, just like the Nvidia play in O/N til today. Careful with chasing this, still just playing in the previous range.
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18068 break did hit KL 18019, may pop back up some if stays above.
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8/23 NAZ popped off TL and may Turn near 18120, Good Luck on Rig Rally Friday into Monday, should pattern break down, look lower.
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NAZ playing at lower end of O/N Range, not sure if it pop back up or fall through to KLOD.
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Sideways NAZ and will not go down, look long into O/N and Monday until EOD Monday. Have a great weekend, BTD/FOMO Forever (until Tuesday and Govt Shutdown)
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Orange Zone is O/N pop and what to look at should Reg Session Stall out on Monday, surprised we did not get the usual Friday Rally into the close. Air Pocket Warning, unless O/N Rig Team can lift it by Monday Open.
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Above chart, you can see how the Friday Reg Session played out the O/N Pump Dump with a sell off of dump of pump. Next week will be the make or break for the balance of 1st Q.
Great analysis and well done on getting the Long call right!
Divergencify
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700 points in one day, impressive. do you think we will see decent pullback?
MAZing
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@Divergencify, Most likely not as the O/N is next and that will only lift it more. Unless there is a pull back between now and the close that dose not get back up. Then this may be the high or level at that drop.
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@MAZing last question what's your lowest position or do you just scalping?
MAZing
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@Divergencify, Scalped the way up in and out. Closed Long yesterday at KL, missed most of O/N lift. 18060-65 may be worth a look here for stall drop back to 18019 KL.
Divergencify
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@MAZing I am not trading today, almost reached my max loss for the day rule. Have a great day