Hi all, back at it for the second day =). We've seen a lot of ranging action this morning which has already taken many targets out of play according to my plan. As a result, I have three scenarios with a long bias until opening lows are breached.
Scenario 1: Sellers have been absorbed and bullish zones remain true, expect pullbacks to around the equity open or lower but within today's lows. Extra confirmation if price continues to rise after opening action has ended.
Scenario 2: Opening highs are not broken and price breaks opening lows. The plan will be to hone into (my) prepared technical setups and timing for potential short trades. Be wary of a slow grind (chop) or unexpected moves since intraday targets will be harder to define.
Scenario 3: This scenario has a VERY LOW chance of happening and is not drawn but is still worth mentioning. Both the opening highs and lows will be spiked in this scenario in which case the expectation is to lean long with a focus on prepared technical setups and timing to execute. If yesterday's high to open are already broken by this point, then there will be no intraday bias except one based on technical setups and timing.
As usual I will be eyeing all the indices and sitting tight, good luck all!
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Opening lows breached so scenario 2 in play. Watch above 10830ish for a nice price to short especially on a strong 11 am hourly close. As stated in scenario 3, be wary that there is a low chance of whipsaw especially late into the day.
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Unfortunately a bit overblown on the pullback price (actual area was a bit lower, closer to the area defined in the original plan) but overall scenario 2 for today played out as planned and sentiment followed. If positions are still being held assess risk to account for late day whipsaw moves
good info! what do you think will happen tomorrow?
Billy_FX_
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@TVClogin, I'm not a specialist in this area but an educated guess would be some kind of pullback at some point into more bearish moves. The local bearish breakdown on h4 tested levels around 10800 and dumped but failed to gain enough momentum to close with new lows at the end of the trading day. It would not be surprising if the market squeezed to 10910 and beyond in the short-term if the bearish move prior to this breakdown is not complete. Regardless we will see in the AM, I rise with the opening bell =)