NAS/QQQ Weekend Levels (Sep 26-30)
Coming off another down week. The Nasdaq dropped 4.67% and after trading in a range of 854 points. Price Chopped sideways for the first two trading days of the week then dropped sharply on Wednesday after the FOMC 75 bp rate hike and hawkish comments from Powell.
• Price is now below the longer term 382 Fib RT and is threatening to test the June 16th low of 11068.
• Heavy slate of data due out this week and two speeches scheduled for Powell.
• Key PCE data is due out Thursday/Friday and is the preferred metric used by the Fed to measure inflation.
• A PCE miss to the downside expect price to rally. A PCE miss to the upside expect price to move much lower.
• Currently the broad market is oversold and leaning very bearish.
• The Put/call ration is over 1 signaling heavy put buying and the VIX is just below 30.
• Anything is possible but this week is setting up for a hard reversal if any positive news is presented
• Key levels are the June 16th low below and the 382 Fib above.
• Bullish harmonic noted last week is still in play.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed Head speaking all day + ECB Largard speaks
Tuesday Fed Powell speaks, US Durable goods & US home sales + US consumer conf.
Wednesday Fed Powell Speaks, US EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US GDP & US PCE data
Friday US Consumer Spending, US Core PCE & University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday CBRL, BB, PRGS
Wednesday PAYX, CTAS, THO, JEF, MTN
Thursday BBBY, KMX, RAD, MU, NKE
Friday CCL
BULLISH NOTES
Oversold conditions
RSI at 30
Nearing June 16th low support
Max bearish sentiment = Short covering rally possible
Potential dovish commentary from Fed heads + Powell
Potential positive reaction to PCE data
Still in bullish harmonic reversal zone
BEARISH NOTES
Below HTF 382 Fib
Below 9/21/55 emas
Max bearishness = self fulfilling prophecy syndrome
Potential Hawkish commentary from Fed Heads + Powell
Potential negative reaction to PCE data
Potential failure of June 16th low = panic sell off
• Price is now below the longer term 382 Fib RT and is threatening to test the June 16th low of 11068.
• Heavy slate of data due out this week and two speeches scheduled for Powell.
• Key PCE data is due out Thursday/Friday and is the preferred metric used by the Fed to measure inflation.
• A PCE miss to the downside expect price to rally. A PCE miss to the upside expect price to move much lower.
• Currently the broad market is oversold and leaning very bearish.
• The Put/call ration is over 1 signaling heavy put buying and the VIX is just below 30.
• Anything is possible but this week is setting up for a hard reversal if any positive news is presented
• Key levels are the June 16th low below and the 382 Fib above.
• Bullish harmonic noted last week is still in play.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed Head speaking all day + ECB Largard speaks
Tuesday Fed Powell speaks, US Durable goods & US home sales + US consumer conf.
Wednesday Fed Powell Speaks, US EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US GDP & US PCE data
Friday US Consumer Spending, US Core PCE & University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday CBRL, BB, PRGS
Wednesday PAYX, CTAS, THO, JEF, MTN
Thursday BBBY, KMX, RAD, MU, NKE
Friday CCL
BULLISH NOTES
Oversold conditions
RSI at 30
Nearing June 16th low support
Max bearish sentiment = Short covering rally possible
Potential dovish commentary from Fed heads + Powell
Potential positive reaction to PCE data
Still in bullish harmonic reversal zone
BEARISH NOTES
Below HTF 382 Fib
Below 9/21/55 emas
Max bearishness = self fulfilling prophecy syndrome
Potential Hawkish commentary from Fed Heads + Powell
Potential negative reaction to PCE data
Potential failure of June 16th low = panic sell off
Comment:
Choppy price action to start the week. This is a chart of the regular trading hours to show the gaps. As you can see the gap from the weekend was filled quickly this morning and then the Nas traded lower for the rest of the day. Note that there is a large unfilled gap higher up. That would be an upside target area if we get a price reversal out of the June low.
Comment:
NQ has pushed back to the top of the gap mentioned in the last post. The overnight move comes off a softer tone from Fed's Evans. A break of the gap high could lead to a move up to the 382 Fib (red line). Note that all recent bounces have been sold off quickly. June lows are still in play.
Comment:
Price was firmly rejected at the top of the gap. Price cascaded down and took out the Friday low in the afterhours session on negative AAPL news. June 16th low retest highly likely. The NQ and ES are moving in tandem although slightly out of sync. A move in one will likely pull the other.
Comment:
Rally back into the range this morning which is positive. June low has not been tested. Usually when price gets this close to a level it eventually make it there. This may be close enough if the ES rallies as it has already touched the low. Key levels this morning are June low and 11535 above.
Comment:
Key levels remain the same. Price had a nice bounce yesterday but the 11570 was not broken so that level remains key to the upside and the recent lows are key to the down side. May have some sideways price actin going into tomorrow's Core PCE data.
Comment:
After testing the June low today and going into the PCE reading tomorrow here is a look at the long term chart showing potential downside targets. If price breaks the June 16th low a full compound correction into the 2020 peak is possible.
