"Buy in May" may be underway. The joke is that the current Bear is the only one in history with ZERO big or limit down Overnight sessions. The propping keeps offsetting the Open Session sell offs. The focus is on the low volume (easy manipulated) off session. This is somewhat similar to the Summer months, so expect the "Buy in May" prop season to continue. Late yesterday to current has been a 500 point NAZ run. Now you will see some short covering and BTD's actually work together to push it higher. The offsetting propping may same the day as it has limited the drop, YTD. White line has strong resistance, NAZ may drop/pop to attempt the break through. No hold on drop, look short or after failed bounce break through. Bigger picture move is chart below, 1st leg of "buy in May".
You can view prior 2 posts that may help with the current move set up.
You can view prior 2 posts that may help with the current move set up.
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Place Short at 12170 with 30 point stop. We will target 12000 to 11900 and look to reverse should it hold. Just going with the prop to near Open sell off and drop after Open pattern, I may be wrong.
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NAZ is at a stand still with ZERO movement. Stay with Short, may see fake Pop prior to drop. Looking for yellow arrow PA.
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Stop hit and back at 180, thought we would see pull back prior to pop. think NAZ goes up today. May just go up, no PB. Adding short, back here at 80, target 130.
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Just keep in mind that 80% of the time the NAZ does not break above Overnight Highs (and Stay) after the Open. If it does it is usually after in 1st 30M or during Dead Zone/final hour. Point is that the sell off is prior to new high or the next move. Likely on its way. Or, NAZ just runs another 500 points with no PB. This may actually happen and I would not doubt this. Playing counter moves inside trend moves can get sloppy.
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Yellow 2nd short and white 2nd stop and TL is short projection.
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Find it odd that the NAZ is stationary? Many times this is bad for the Short side. Looking at strange day unfolding, a big move is on its way. I will play Short. Stepping away, will adjust later if wrong. Drop/Pop is my view, may be Pop/Drop?
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Short worked out to 12083 target. Long from 120 up.
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Short under 12285, Pull Back 100 points and play bounce
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10YN is or will be an issue today.
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Shorts away, Here it comes, High Ticks and No Pop. Stalling is falling in the REAL World. Just use a stop.
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Stepping away for most of balance. Under 85 will target bottom 1st 30M. Just feeling like this Pop needs to test lower since move come in Final hour of yesterday and Overnight. Just seems weak, many times that is all it takes. My stop on Short is 30 points above or 12315. Target on Short is 185. Range Bar PA is starting to look like an EKG report and that is usually negative.
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Stop Hit, 1 way Long is likely for balance. The Algo's typically will not change, Short covering and potential BTD's will push it higher. I am good with gains and will sit out.
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Last note: NAZ is in range of arrows and should it stall up here it may bounce around in the area. Looks like they pulled off the propping to stabilize the NAZ from head way out of channel. This may be the near term goal and balance of day.
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Short under 12360 to 12275. NAZ needs to break below 12320, otherwise close Short.
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Load Up should NAZ not Pass 60.
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Today is a hold your nose and stay long. I do not like these as they crawl slowly, drop from time to time to test and resume. Today nay be different as a test may fail to hold and plunge. That is why I am taking Shorts. Again, up on points and think this will fade since the pop came from final hour and Overnight, and it is Friday.
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Yellow Arrows are the Range and Solid White (thick) is the TL.
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If you are playing big move Short, 12477 would be next. Long to and Reverse or short at 12477, again 1 way NAZ typically does not change so it may keep climbing. I like counter trend and Long Traps on Friday's. I still think this fades some.
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NAZ hit upper and will try 12348
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You have to view these days with an xray machine in order to get the moves. 348 break goes to 320, ones of these drop will fail and shake things loose. 420 will stall and drop, pop/drop should be next.
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Stepping away, every advance has a retracement until the next advance from the drop does not pass the prior high. That is what I am looking for and 420-30 may be it. Repeat the flow until break. You can reverse each move.
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420 Shorts away with 30 point stop.
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Run Forrest Run.
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lower stop to 430, just in case.
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Should try 278, heading to lunch.
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278 break goes to 144
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NAZ loosing steam, 12102 seems about right.
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Needs to get on other side of white TL in order to go Long.
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Run Forrest Run, what a Joke.
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The Overnight Props make total sense. Closing Short here at 12260
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12265 Long to 12320
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Range of play for the balance
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Needs to pass BLUE or it is a Short.
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Stop at 51, 2 sell orders net short 1 on long.
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Closed Long at 12315
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12350 is next Short No Pass
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When you see high ticks and STALLING, reversal time.
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I would be shocked if NAZ closes at day High or even near it.
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Watch this
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Has to go under yellow 43 in order head south. Kind of Head Fake here, it may work.
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Going Short anyway at 71
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50 point stop and adding 2nd at 89
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3rd added at 95
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NAZ has NO Strength, do not get fooled. AS long as it is below 12430. I will hold.
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Ticks getting negative, lets see. Long Trap ? This would be 2nd stop at 420, need to keep track of this.
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Again, just no movement at all in a normally very high movement time. This is odd and will likely go higher. Still in Short, stop at 45
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These are very strange days, this is just all over the place no patterns that make sense and that is why I am big Short on a Friday at Close after a huge run up. BAZARRO Days.
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Closed 2 shorts at 50, 1 on
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No pass at 90, I will keep. stop at 91.
Trade closed manually:
Have great week end and Go Long Sunday into Monday, Close near Open and Go Short. Flat, I closed last Short.
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Sell off close, should of held on.
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Thanks to all followers, these are crazy days and the PA is just insane.
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White thick TL is trend up and White Horizontal are turning points, the trend will rotate around TL up until failure.
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Another view with Channel.
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Forecast forwrad of range
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IDS 20 & 50, 20 is set up to 50. 50 confirms.
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A follower asked, why was I shorting on Friday at close? The reason was the 2 Stoch's were at high limit.