NAZ near lower YTD Channel after struggling to get lower during lower volume Holiday week. Usually the next move is back up the entire distance of the multiple day decline and this is typically done in the off session (non Reg Session) over 1-2 days. A Gap up may show up on Sunday and if so, retest gap drop then up and away. Should that not play out and the NAZ heads south, use yellow arrows and TLX's below (red lines) as targets. Chart is general guide for April and not a typical daily forecast/post. BTD/FOMO Forever and Go Fed.
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O/N Update with expected Gap pop on Sunday, ML O/N is 530, KLOD 484. Look Long still as: Monday, New Month and Quarter and FOMO will be dominant.
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KL 592 rejected again, if you are watching. The KL 514 could not get passed all day Thursday, so they do it in the 1st off session. Look for 514 to be retested and even the Gap below. After may see a Dead Zone rally to the mid to upper channel. Out again this week, so limited updates.
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18530 ML O/N hit and slight bounce, watch the rotation around and NAZ to stay in O/N Range during Open. IDS27
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Today should be Long from ML O/N up, or 15800 zone. Or, Pop to 18600-25 with stall and lower retest at O/N low 18445. Pump/Dump is not playing out so the next trick is drop/pop with FOMO's at the Open. 1-way runner lower would just be insane and that should of happened months ago, why start now.
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Strong Support at 510, 495 and 485. Long on Hold and strong Short on drop below with not Pop back above.
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470-80 to 560 retest 1st
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ML O/N to 560 is TZ
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560 hit and lets see the reaction , go flat or trail.
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Typical games and nothing has changed as of now. Air Balloon up unless you se the push/pull PA
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NAZ may stay inside O/N Range and churn around. Aimless with little strength in Reg Session and will need to go sideways until next O/N session or Short this.
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O/N continues to be the Boss, watch head fake longs today
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VIX up 6%, what is that bout? That is big for today type days.
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Another try at 592, this has to be the 20th
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Back later, So far NAZ is playing out with Gap, Gap Fill and Pop. Opening statement from Saturday. Just watch the KL 592-514 range.
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May see decent sneak drop this morning as a drop test, under 18610
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560-610 may be clean out for drop
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592 rejected again, not sure why so many try's? Flat here and waiting, DZ may try again and actually get through. I think Powell is talking Wednesday so they may try drop offset or knee jerk FOMO Pop. GO Fed and FOMO Forever.
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514 Hit again, I am waiting for the NAZ to stop floating back up every time it falls.
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NAZ on the Edge and typical U Turn Zone should it not drop here.
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Above 18440 is U Turn Play back to 545 test
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Dollar Up, BCoin down, Vix Up and Crude Up , NAZ is Flat. RIGGED
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O/N to the rescue as the sideways is most likely
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Just watch 440
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Forgot, 10YNH lower (yield up), RIGGED
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KLOD rejection may see this but unlikely with the Riggers
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NAZ will act normal and drop soon, prior to a retest higher and may try 592 again.
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A Flat to negative Monday should set up a Drop for next few days. O/N will really have to deliver tonight, if so. Go Long 1st move in O/N until near Open.
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4HR, NAZ on the edge/cliff. Still in Mod of SZ's
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NAZ getting near its Viagra Time (O/N), starting to move up.
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Not Joking, and can happen in the Off Session. If not, take the stall out near 590 the other way.
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Thinking the O/N pop up may have 1-2 more shots and then the drug will loose its effect. Will need a Reg Session Viagra or mega dose (24 hour). Go Fed.
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The 440 hold did get as high as 515, for now. The jokes that I make regarding price action is based on the fact that the NAZ does trade with type very different types of PA based on the O/N or Reg Session. The O/N will lift while the Reg Session will usually sell off the O/N lift. Predictable pattern and just getting to be a joke (after 12-18 months or so).
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4/2 Update, NAZ out of Channel and NO O/N Prop Job, get Short. Yellow vertical arrow is your range for next few days. KLOD today is 18508, ML O/N is 475
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Today will be very interesting in Open Range (Reg Session), VIX up again, B Coin -5%, TSLA -1.6%, FNG1-.30%, 10YN been lower past 2 days, Dollar has been up, all LC Tech are in the red. May (or should) see 1 way runner lower and if not just BTD, FOMO to the moon as you just can't fight the Rig.
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IDS27, you can see that KL 440 is still being tested and holding, watch the KL.
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Just broke under, 18378 next test lower
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18442 is blocking on way back up, 840-820 is range to watch and ML O/N for pop test and reaction. Back Later.
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375-395 may be a turn zone for pop back to 440-50
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NAZ out of channel and U-Turn could still happen with NAZ above 475. The U-Turns have been surprising and then run like crazy. No 475 pass and this may be the big drop or decent test lower day.
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SZ 288 next for bounce
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Lower target hit may come up some.
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Once again the majority of the move today was done in O/N and sideways in Reg Session. This is the case no matter what direction the O/N takes.
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NAZ has dropped 400 points in past 2 days and may go back up half way or 18400 level
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Needs to pass 265-85 for pop through
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Watch 340-80 as Turn Zone out of O/R
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YTD 4HR, NAZ well outside the channel. May retest near for next signal or keep dropping near final hour for O/N lift.
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2 potential moves and the Long U-Turn would not surprise me with Powell talking tomorrow. Go Fed, AI, Stimulus trade, BTD, FOMO. Just watch the Long Side curve ball on this dip, may need one last pop flush out stall.
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1 Fed day pop takes 8 days to struggle to get back to starting point. Expect another 1-2 day pop or maybe this is the 960 retest. Look both ways is all I am saying. Danger Zone time.
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Extremely weak jerky PA on low volume, today is nothing and O/N will redirect this back up most likely.
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4/3 Update, 350-250 is range to watch. Go back to last weekly post and I mentioned that the NAZ would go up on low volume Holiday week and drop this week. Daily volume is 500-600k NQ Contracts, not low or high just average. The NAZ tends to go higher on low volume near key times such as O/N, Dead Zone start (9-10 am ct), last 10m of day. KLOD today is 18353 and ML O/N is 18300, yellow arrow is range for trades and use the Red TLX's for entry/targets.
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Mentioned 340-80 as TZ and NAZ has turned and dropped for near 100. time for sideways or redirect up or sideways and drop for 100. Just watch that pattern and use my KL's/TLX's. NAZ is popping off 18258, yesterday ML O/R
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Back Later, Go Fed, Powell is to talk later and may give a comment that will at least create a wiggle or some good movement.
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IDS27, here are some moves to play, take trade based on reaction and let it go, then get out.
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285-95 looks like strong resistance and TLX 236 hold is a Long.
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Open Range unless ML O/N gets passed. Look at each KL and add 20-30 points for stop clean out and the set entry. Example KL 285 Short, Look to take short from 285-315. The extra 30 points is the clean out of stops above 285 and will look long but will snap once stops are cleaned out.
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315-20 NAZ may drop back
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This move here is set up for next move and a retest of both ranges. These can go either way and what to look for.
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2/20/24 call on 10YN, had a pop drop offset that may set up a drop. We will see. This would hurt stocks.
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320 clean out and drop, just a game.
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260 and above should retest 18300
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So far O/R holding true and looking up 1st, 260 is KL to watch
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Long from 236 to KLOD and beyond, BTD, FOMO, Go Fed
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4HR, watch 520 rejection or KL 590
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Trade TLX's
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TLX Trader
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Just watch Hook Short at 426 no pass
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Go FED, we need the juice, Print money
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NAZ should drop when he is done talking, or BTD FOMO Up UP
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He needs to mention AI a few times or this may sink.
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426 Hook Short try #1
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White arrow is The Hook
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Someone just said AI, NAZ will not need the Viagra today.
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AI mentioned 3-4 times and no lift, go short
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Fed Speech bookends, Today may be a drop offset or push back into the Channel.
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18404 is KL, long above and short below.
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404 is Mid of TLX 378 and 426
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At TLX 426 I am Flat, too long of period with no strength. FYI, many times this is a signal of pop to follow so do not follow me or place a stop under your long. May see curve ball drop as a surprise. Volume average, NAZ will need some tricks to get up.
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O/N has been lower to flat past 2 days and Dead Zone is not delivering today, this is a major change, just an FYI. Those two produced most of previous recent gains.
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Zero gas, this is very odd. Markets are just half dead unless there is money from the Fed or back stops, etc.
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403 test and wait on reaction
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Watch for negative Ticks and the NAZ lifting, that is a Head Fake signal.
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Ticks need to go positive and NAZ needs to pass 426
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403 pop to 426 is set up for next move, long or drop. Most likely at 2pm ct
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426 rejection is this under 403, this can go on for along time and then just wiggle stop you out and then go in your original direction.
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Tricks or bust for the NAZ. Looking tired.
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Go to 5M chart and watch lower lows of body and lower highs.
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Nasty and why I am flat. Pick your trading times well, many will just spin you all over as you get more confused. Low volume is helping this jerky PA. Back by the close.
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Hit KLOD
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O/N will try to lift it.
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5M, just watch the bodies on this 2 way move.
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4/4 Update, O/N volume is lower than normal and chart is 4HR for today and Friday. Mentioned yesterday (when I went Flat at 426) that the NAZ would need some tricks to get higher. Then, the NAZ drop/tested to the white arrow (could be base retest) and in final 30M and O/N ran up 175 points. Chart below, today KLOD is 18357, Yellow vertical is range and white is Long zone, Friday is break out white or yellow arrows. I would think that the NAZ will try to get back in the YTD Channel with the typical Friday - Monday Long Trade.
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3 LC Tech that need to fall are AMZN, GOOG, NFLX. GOOG is lower today, should these 3 drop from current highs, we may see others start to lift up. This is how the NAZ is stabilized, we never see a straight flush and most likely will not.
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Yellow circle was an O/N failed auction lift and the yellow arrow the usual drop test to zone.
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545 is upper TZ and 403 is lower support, play the range.
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KL 18590 rejected the NAZ about 20 times, this is another retest and potential break though, review past few posts. This will be interesting and a major retest. During Reg Session is real and O/N is just a fake attempt.
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590 rejection would be a perfect Pump/Dump but unlikely as so many LC Tech are up, just hard to turn the ship and may take all day. 18455 is current ML O/N
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Final 30M of yesterday close and O/N 220 point pop on lower than normal O/N volume. I would wait for a stall and retest of KL's and look short for Pull Back. Back after 1st 30m Open. Taking some Short at 540 will 100 point stop. 450 is scalp short target.
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Volume so light that I just do not trust any move and looking for some push/pull which we have not seen. If push/pull does show up, careful on any long until the machines are turned off.
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NAZ will need to get above O/N high and stay above. Usually will not and falls bock under eventually.
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4HR update, 545-590 sideways with drop test is play and weak pop is Push Pull time.
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What will happen is the O/N trade that many did miss will need to keep moving up or if no up it will drop back in O/N Range to retest and create some points and then make next move from there.
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TSLA is dropping and NAZ is stalling, watch yourself if long.
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Dead Zone magic up or Push Pull will come in heavy, I will move my Short stop to 18600
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Stop at 18560 and looking for NAZ to roll over in DZ
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O/N continues to be the Boss and if you do not get in prior to Reg Session you have missed most of the moves. Sideways to nowhere and BTD FOMO, Go Fed
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Waiting on the Push/Pull and may happen under 540
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Some Machines are switching over and the battle begins. The entire range of 570-510 will be in play and I am moving stop to 18600
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Back later, rigged garbage is what this has become. The O/N is where you need to focus and less in Reg Session.
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Covered some at 490, 50 point runner, stop at 18560 now
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Should push pull not get crazy, switch to long as this will go sideways to up for O/N Lift
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490 hold is 590 retest, closing other shorts and waiting on Long signal.
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This has been the slowest PA I have ever seen. It is hard to trade SLOOOW PA. Slow, light volume and off session moves. These are all the hardest, weakest and rigged conditions. The fact that the NAZ usually lifts up in these conditions (primarily) is a huge signal.
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Should of stayed short, looks like pump/dump day. Just illegal.
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TLX 478 Long with stop under is play. Target 18510 and 18540
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FNG1 up 1%, NAZ should Pop
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18509 hit and needs to pass, wait on adding to long and place stop at entry down here.
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Back later and flat here after a few scalps, just keep your eye on Failed Auction zone below as they usually come into play when the NAZ stalls or struggles. If hit, great Long Entry 18400
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518 is next KL to pass and stay above
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Earlier comment of "what will happen" is playing out and will continue as long as NAZ is under ML O/R. Play 18540-18460 until break out and stay out.
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540 hit and watch the Ticks now.
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NAZ is inside the Channel, the next move is out/rejection or Channel Top by Monday Close. That is how it is done and another U-Turn timed with the Friday-Monday Long Play.
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30M could produce an M, careful on Long in the Dead Zone at session High. Then again, BTD FOMO Forever with O/N lift to Mid Channel.
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M Formed and for Magic Rig stall
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540-460 is playing out, look for Break Out Stay Out
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May try FA Zone at 18400
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FA cleaned out and may pop back up
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KL 150 hit, may hold and retest 236
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NAZ got out of break out and did stay out. White dash is mid level of YTD range. 960 is the original Danger Zone that had some U Turns.
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Should of stayed full short from Open. O/N Pump Dump finally broke out with little Dead Zone magic lift or FOMO.
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KL's for O/N and morning. 150-960 should be range for next move.
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4/5 Update, NAZ did lift up to 18150 and chart below is drop/pop play at new release. Look Long on any hold as it is Friday. Only change is the chatter about mid-east and maybe holding over the weekend may be a concern. KLOD is 230 and ML O/N is 100.
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I adjusted the YTD channel as the lower end has dropped 200 points.
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Yesterday I mentioned the Push/Pull PA. It did show up and when you see it do not look long. It will end and the NAZ can lift and usually does. Prior to the drop, all was normal and then selling volume picked up.
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150-130 is range here and a drop below 130-20 may revisit 100 and O/N Low.
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Back later after the Jobs Number, just do not trust the O/N as it can easily set up the Pump/Dump. Need to see the big volume of Reg Session and if the Reg Session wants to take over being the Boss. Yesterday's big action could easily be followed by a bigger reaction today in the opposite direction. If not, then look for the push/pull.
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Updated YTD 4HR, New TLX at 18306, may be in play next few days.
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All world markets and indexes are lower and the O/N is up in US. This was the case all of 2022 when the NAZ was lower all year. Get use to it and watch the seesaw from O/N to Reg Session.
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Staying in the O/N Range, O/N may still be the Boss, we will see in Reg Session if 960 is attempted.
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Keep an eye on 10YN
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Mixed Signals as of now, drop/pop would be 1st choice at Open. Back later.
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Many of you that have been following me will understand the following: For months we have seen the O/N be in control and the Reg Session do very little, this is not normal. We may be seeing a change back to normal and if so the O/N will start selling as opposed to just lifting most Reg Session drops. Should this happen, the two may drop this quickly on heavy volume. If not, then BTD/FOMO is back on this decent drop.
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Watch 130, mentioned it earlier.
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18087 needs to hold
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KLOD hit and no pass go short
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NAZ will play O/R and O/N levels. 18190 is O/N Top and KL here.
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190 held for scalp, here are your plays today
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IDS27, take trades at TL hit and white bars are Long. So Far Longs are working until stall out or rejection. This may run until Tuesday as O/N appears to still be the Boss (unless the Reg Sessions sell off again).
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Back Later, Short under KLOD with stop above. This may go sideways all days and actually pop up by EOD.
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Typical Friday and PA, back to Channel.
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Sideways and then a 100 point move, not sure on direction at 360
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Hook Short potential at 360
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Upside down indicators, that usually is followed by drop in next day or so and not today. May see Failed Auctions all the way up. Nothing has changed.
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Unless NAZ sells off by close, it will just go back inside the channel and retest KL 590 again.
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409 spike may be drop test set up, target 306 on drop. Unlikely but what may happen.
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Trying and no pop will drop
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Long set up and no go is Short scalp
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378 rejection is hammer time, or not it is Friday. BTD FOMO, Go Fed
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Anyway, notice how today has zero push/pull as compared to yesterday. Need to see fast push/pull PA in order to support any short.
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Here you go, rejection at yesterday O/N low, needs to pass.
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Turtle Hammer, may bounce at that speed
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306 Bingo near may pop
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Push Pull time
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Have to scalp any short, NAZ will not stay down. Quick drop test did show up so look long on any lift.
Trade closed manually
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PA is insane, Flat and done for the day. Trade micros only, I trade 5-10 minis, too much heat.
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30M, looks like channel rejected
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4HR above, not 30M
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4/8, Out this week. Range for the day.
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10YN is moving lower, yields higher.
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100% Garbage, no strength so look for a pop up, stall and drop by next day or so.
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Just checked in and NAZ just can not break out of O/N Range, O/N continues to be the Boss. BCoin/TSLA will offset APPL/NVDA drop. Just wait for one side of boat day and get short.
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4/9 update, out this week. O/N Pump/Dump play may be at work, we will know at Reg Session Open Drive. O/N Volume is low and yesterday entire volume was off. The lower volume days tend to lift 1st then get followed with heavier selling volume. KLOD 18306 is retest and Long above and short below. Yellow arrow are general targets.
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FOMC Minutes are tomorrow so any strange lift may be just another drop offset. FYI, NAZ lost 37% in 2022 and gained 60% in 2023 to get back to even but the 2 year average is +11.5%. In 2024 we went about 11% above 2022 high and have dropped some since. 2 year dead money in my view. NAZ will have to break up or it will provide better returns on the short side should the PA be better at the prior KL's. Just careful with any chasing on the long side.
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17530 is Mid Level of YTD Range, KL to watch.
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KL 409 gives 2nd chance to get out at this level for the sellers, need to see if pump/dump plays out or sideways all day until close for O/N Lift play. O/N is still the Boss so watch O/N Range today.
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Just watch under 370 - 306 for break out. Reg Session is just powerless. Have a great day and will check back tomorrow.
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Rigged, NVDA is down 2.25%, Forget about IT.
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White is next or may retest 370.
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O/N Pump/Dump, again. The O/N has not had a Limit Down session since 2020 (Covid). Zero in the 2022 Bear year. We are due and if so, the O/N may reverse the typical magic lift or setting up Pump/dumps. Now watch the sister (Dead Zone) works its Long Only games. NAZ will need to bust out of this range to the upside or we are going lower in next few days.
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Here notice how the O/N lift and Dead Zone retracement back up puts the NAZ near flat on the day. This is the pattern that will need to break in order for a substantial drop to play out. Under KL 306 is a better Short at rejection.
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This should play out and if not BTD/FOMO back up.
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Just amazing slow PA with no real strength. I may suggest to not trade after 1st hour to 90 minutes and let the balance go. NAZ is stuck in O/N range after that period. This is why I am out this week.
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4/10, not trading just an update on chart. 300 point 3 minute drop to lower range.
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4HR Update on 4/1 Post Chart. KL 18054 is what to watch.
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4/12 Update, Not Trading just an update. Turn Zone is TLX 457 to KL 590. This YTD 4HR chart.
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Main TL Hit
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4/15 Weekly Range Forecast. Out again next week, buckle up under KL 18054.
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4/15 Update, Not Trading, just an update. NAZ near upper target (yellow arrow) and dropped back. If you are Long, use a parachute this week. Not sure what to make of PA recently, looks shaky.
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12:30 pm ct update, 4 HR Chart
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4/16 Update, Hopefully you had the parachute for the drop yesterday. Friday-Monday Long only pattern has broken down. 17500 is weekly low target and watch the Diablo's at every Open. Next change would be some lower moves in the O/N after the a few Reg Sessions confirm the selling PA.
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4/17 Chart Update. Still out - look long today. NAZ did usual O/N U-Turn set up signal at 1am, not sure if we hit 17550 today or this week should the Reg Session have some buying. For now 17750 - 18054 is range to watch. Open may retest O/N low and on hold look Long. If lift off and no retest, this can keep climbing and retest 18590.
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Another O/N Pump/Dump, get use to it. 750 retested.
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4/18 Update, NAZ is near white dash or mid YTD Range.