$NQ_F Daily Plan 8/3/26

Aug 1

NQ1! Quickly touching on the current weekly state of NQ futures, it has progressed lower and lower, forming a OTFD (one-time framing down) in which value moves lower and lower, indicating sellers are overall in control of the weekly auctions. The key point here is identifying where shifts at the Daily auctions can alter the upcoming weekly profile and we have this as of Friday close wtih Friday closing above the completed weekly value high. This does not mean an immediate reversal is on the books but any sort of shift of a higher timeframe auction requires proof in the coming days.

Friday has built above the established weekly control (pW-TPOC) but soured in extended trading. This however can change on Sunday into Monday RTH but the proof will rely on the first few Daily profiles to maintain their value above the pW-TPOC around 27980s. The more daily profiles that build value here will result in a new weekly profile that breaks the OTFD movement we have had for July.

There is a additonal piece on context provided with the Premium subscription of TradingView and that is utilizing its Volume Footprint and Volume Delta indicator. This measures the net aggression through volume as well as time. Using QQQ as the direct proxy to NQ1! the completed week printed a rather heavy net negative volume delta (weekly -38.65M) as well as the daily (-2.56M) but the catch here is the net selling on the daily did not reward the shorts/sellers. This is the first diverging sign that sellers are no longer getting the reward from shorts, this does not negate however they won't reattempt and this is where key levels will show who is right vs wrong.

The largest prior daily positive delta node ovelaps with the weekly negative delta node here in where sellers can re-engage to attempt and break below the Friday low but will run into the MAIN level to watch here at 28030-27980 where the weekly value control (pw-TPOC) and the weekly positive delta node.

MAIN ZONE: NQ 27980-28030 (High actionability)
- Higher timeframe participants looking to shift value higher will defend an attempt to break below Friday's low and trade back towards the negative weekly/daily positive pocket 28240-2800

SECONDARY ZONE: NQ 28240-28200 (Moderate-to-high actionability)
- If sellers are not strong enough to progress lower and responsive buying is established here from the Friday daily positive node, this will be the zone for price to catch itself
- May undercut to tag a dense HTF trade level from QQQ at 28162s

Upside Target: NQ 28350-28400 (Friday Value Low + Daily Negative Delta Node)
- First step in higher prices require a reclaim of this zone with acceptance above the largest MIN Delta node from Friday at 28400

Final Upside Target: NQ 28600 (Friday Value High)
- Once sellers no longer can defend their prior Daily MIN Delta node, there is not much resistance until reaching the value high where expected responsive selling can occur.

NET: The outlook I view here is another pullback buy after observing failed downside aggression. Daily auctions showing a potential shift in a higher timeframe auction but require proof. Highest actionability at the MAIN ZONE but willing to settle at the SECONDARY ZONE for small accumulation of longs.

Aug 3

Trade closed: target reached

We did not get the tap at the SECONDARY ZONE at NQ NQ 28240-28200. It was close this morning and stopped around the prior day Value Low at NQ 28350.

The direction remained the same but was waiting for a entry lower rather than chasing out the gate.This is because NQ was underperforming vs ES, RTY, and YM. I wanted to take advantage of the weakness for a buyable pullback which did not manifest at the ideal location.

Regardless, a decent trade if you were willing to grab at the VAL where this is considered an area of "discount" from the prior day.