NAS/QQQ Weekend Levels (Sep 19-23)

The Nasdaq finished the week down 5.81% after trading in a 1200-point range. The Nasdaq registered the largest weekly drop since 2020 closing at 12933. Price flushed as low as 11778 on Friday but finished the day about 146 points off the low. The catalyst for the weekly drop was higher than expected CPI data on Tuesday. Next week the market will turn it’s attention to the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. A 75 bp hike is expected and Powell’s comments afterward will be closely scrutinized. Below are a few points I'm considering this week.

• Nasdaq coming off a 5.81 % drop
• Inflation continues to be key metric to watch
• FOMC Rate decision on Wednesday!!
• Price currently below the 9/21/55 emas
• Bias remains Bearish
• Price now sitting just above higher time frame 382 Fib support (11797)
• Possibility of a compound corrective move down to 11500 if 382 is broken
• Downside target is now the June 16th low (11068)
• Upside target and resistance is 21/55 emas around (12500)
• Last two weeks of Sept historically week period for stock
• Monday has been the weakest day of the week
• VIX holding at 26 so far.

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Canadian PPI
Tuesday US Housing Starts, Canadian CPI
Wednesday US Existing Home Sales, US EIA Crude & FOMC Interest Rate Descision
Thursday US Jobless Claims
Friday Canadian Retail Sales, Powell Speaks & US Manufacturing PMI Flash

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday AZO
Tuesday SFIX, OPOG
Wednesday GIS, KBH, LEN, TCOM
Thursday CCL, DRI, FDS, COST, FDX
Friday Nothing Notable

BULLISH NOTES

Oversold conditions
Pinbar close on Friday
Potential positive reaction to FOMC
Put/Call points to net short = potential reversal
Potential bond yield reversal

BEARISH NOTES

Strong bearish momentum
June 16th low may be price magnet
Potential negative reaction to FOMC
Negative sentiment = self fulfilling prophecy syndrome
Price below neutral/ 9/21/55 emas
Bond yields continue to rise

Comment:

Of note... there is a bullish harmonic in play as well with a completion zone in the 11500 area.

Comment:

Would expect bullish continuation if price can break above Friday's high. Potential for short covering going into FOMC.

Comment:

Rallied back into the12000 area into the close yesterday but falling away again. chopping around in this support zone. Note the prior structure (green circles) and the 392 fib. Below the 382 more bearish. Above more bullish. Expect choppy price action going into FOMC.

Comment:

Price has continued to chop in a tight range going into FOMC. Its a waiting game until it breaks out of the box which may not happen until the announcement. The arrows denote target areas for a move higher or lower out of the range.

Comment:

Price attempted a break of the top of the box but was rejected hard. Price broke the bottom of the box easily and hit the first lower target at the 786 Fib. Still room below to the 1.272 Fib extension which is the harmonic completion. I will be watching that zone tomorrow for a bounce. Very bearish price action so a test of the June 16th low is definitely in play.

Comment:

Here is another look at the bullish harmonic. Completion at the 1.272 fib extension. Stop is large on this just below June 16th low. Treating the completion zone as down side target for now. If price fails to react I would consider it to be very bearish.

Comment:

Gapped below the harmonic completion zone. This is bearish. A break of the overnight low increases the odds of a test of the June lows greatly. Stop for the harmonic is below the June low so essentially we are in a big potential bounce zone. Best to watch price action on the lower time frames and keep positions small. Although odds have increased for a June test we could also see a very fast and hard relief rally from the current area.