The market was able to defend the 13776 point mark in yesterday's trading and build a new intermediate high – very strong! We should assume that we are still in a wave iii and have not completed them.
In the next step, prices around 14021 to 14147 points can be achieved. Above this range the scenario is even more bullish. It is to be expected that the market will move on as long as we can hold 13829 points.
The intermediate correction will start below this level. In the bigger chart picture, I reduced the probability of a drop below 12609 points to 35%.
Conclusion: The 13828 points are the decisive factor. As long as we don’t break below this level, further intermediate highs are to be expected. I´ll keep you up to date.
45min:
H4:
Last chart update:
"The Nasdaq reached my primary expectation and achieved the minimum targets I set. If the index falls below the level of 13776 points, I assume that we are in the next intermediate correction, which should primarily takes place within the range of 13600 & 13400 points. But we could also see a deeper correction (as you can see in my secondary scenario) - A correction is needed for a bullish run!
In both cases it is important that the corrective movement is completed over 12954 points. Below that, we would have to look in the superordinate chart to a larger intermediate correction, which would also mean prices below 12609 points!
Conclusion: The Nasdaq can initiate its next intermedaite correction. However, I am only convinced of this if we sustainably fall below 13776 points. As long as the market can hold above this, nothing stands in the way of a further expansion of the current movement with direct new all-time highs."
In the next step, prices around 14021 to 14147 points can be achieved. Above this range the scenario is even more bullish. It is to be expected that the market will move on as long as we can hold 13829 points.
The intermediate correction will start below this level. In the bigger chart picture, I reduced the probability of a drop below 12609 points to 35%.
Conclusion: The 13828 points are the decisive factor. As long as we don’t break below this level, further intermediate highs are to be expected. I´ll keep you up to date.
45min:
H4:
Last chart update:
"The Nasdaq reached my primary expectation and achieved the minimum targets I set. If the index falls below the level of 13776 points, I assume that we are in the next intermediate correction, which should primarily takes place within the range of 13600 & 13400 points. But we could also see a deeper correction (as you can see in my secondary scenario) - A correction is needed for a bullish run!
In both cases it is important that the corrective movement is completed over 12954 points. Below that, we would have to look in the superordinate chart to a larger intermediate correction, which would also mean prices below 12609 points!
Conclusion: The Nasdaq can initiate its next intermedaite correction. However, I am only convinced of this if we sustainably fall below 13776 points. As long as the market can hold above this, nothing stands in the way of a further expansion of the current movement with direct new all-time highs."
For my followers to understand my analysis:
The topic is only described very roughly and is intended to give you a first overview of one of my analysis methods.
1. An impulse always moves in five sub-waves.
Waves 1, 3 and 5 of these are motive waves that move in the same direction as the overall trend.
Waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves, i.e. they correct the previous movement.
The following rules apply to an impulse:
-Wave 4 must not overlap with wave 1, except in a diagonal.
-Wave 3 is never the shortest wave.
-Wave 2 must not fall below the starting point of wave 1.
If one of these rules is broken, the chart analysis must be revised.
2. A correction wave moves in the opposite direction to the overall trend.
Corrective waves are three-part and basically consist of waves A, B and C.
Waves A and C are primarily impulse patterns of the corrective movement and drive the market in the opposite direction to the overall trend.
Wave B corrects the previous wave A and even has the potential to surpass the starting point of wave A.
3. The standard pattern consists of an impulse wave and a corrective wave.
These standard patterns repeat on a short-term basis as well as on a multi-year basis. In other words, every single wave consists of several sub-waves and in turn belongs to the larger picture. For example, wave 1 (an impulse) itself consists of five sub-waves.
This standard pattern continues and accordingly always merges into a higher level.
4. Relation Between Fibonacci and Elliott Wave Theory
Fibonacci Ratio is useful to measure the target of a wave’s move within an Elliott Wave structure. Different waves in an Elliott Wave structure relates to one another with Fibonacci Ratio. For example, in impulse wave:
Wave 2 is typically 38,2 %, 50% or 61.8% of wave 1
• Wave 3 is typically 161.8% of wave 1
• Wave 4 is typically 23.6%, or 38.2% of wave 3
• Wave 5 is typically inverse 1.236 – 1.618% of wave 4, equal to wave 1 or 61.8% of wave 1+3
You can use the information above to determine the point of entry and profit target when entering into a trade.