Those of you that have followed the stock for a while might have seen my previous ideas on NUMI but here is an update. December was a very good month, but it was also a month with a lot of volatility. We peaked around the 2,4 $ - 2,45 $ area, and that is where the shorters saw their opportunity. About 6 million shares were shorted from December 4th till December 21st. It was a bit scary in late December but that huge short position has now been closed. I therefore think it is safe to say that the 1,02-1,04 $ area is our new base.
The fundamentals going forward:
As a lot of you might already know, NUMI raised money in December. Not only that, a lot of warrants were also exercised. This means that they're now sitting on about 30 million $, but with the new dilution NUMI's market cap is now at 230 million $. January and February will be very exciting months for the sector as a whole (especially in Canada). There is the upcoming Horizons psychedelic ETF under the ticker PSYK, which should make the sector a lot more attractive to institutions as well as retail investors that just wants to spread out their risk across the sector. An ETF in a very young sector is generally very bullish, and as the market realizes that, a big reaction will follow in my opinion. We don't yet know what companies will be in the ETF, but when it is announced, it will obviously be a very big catalyst for the companies that are picked. My guess is that they will add Compass Pathways, Mind Medicine, Numinus Wellness and Field Trip in the first round. Another thing that we will have to keep an eye on during January is that Health Canada will have to make a decision whether or not they want to roll out the SAP (special access program). The Special access program allows patients that have tried all other treatments to gain access to psychedelic therapy before it is legalized. If it is rolled out, which I think is what's going to happen, then there could already be ways to generate revenue in late February - early March. If we can get more patients through therapy "the legal way" (and hopefully have very successful results), I think it will become a lot easier to convince the government that it should be legalized for all people. The growth rate NUMI could deliver in the next two years, if first the SAP is rolled out and thereafter psychedelic therapy is legalized across Canada, is absolutely insane. If psilocybin as well as mdma assisted therapy is legalized in 2021, I think we will see investor madness similar to what happened with cannabis in 2017 but on another level because this sector has awoken big interest from the pharma industry, which the cannabis companies only did to some extent.
Price target: If the SAP is rolled out in February and if NUMI is in the PSYK ETF, I think we can get to 5 $ before summer if not before.
Let me know if you have any questions and please follow me if you liked the idea (there are a lot more ideas coming)
Happy to see NUMI made it to the Horizons psychedelic ETF. I'm not selling any more shares on this one until the summer that's for sure !
The_Trend_Master
⋅
@johnvee1111, Yeah and they have a 10 % weighing on the ETF. Just as much as MIND MEDICINE. It will however create much more demand because NUMI is much smaller by market cap
johnvee1111
⋅
@The_Trend_Master, Take a look also at Field Trip Health (FTRP) and Greenbrook TMS Inc (GTMS) that made the ETF also with a weight of 7% each but that have very small floats and daily avg olumes so they should move up quickly when the buying starts next week.
johnvee1111
⋅
@The_Trend_Master Thanks for the analysis ! After missing the December run (sold 2/3s of my position just prior), I started accumulating again in the 1.10-1.20 range as I agree the new support level going forward is above the 1$ mark. One thing that makes NUMI attracting to me is the fact that they have Dr. Gabor Maté part of their Clinical Advisory Council. He's a retired physician and international reference in terms of mental illness and addictions, including being the best physician (IMHO) that researched on ADD (I got to know him because of my kids having ADD and reading a lot about it). This shows me how serious and credible this company is and I am indeed betting on them for the long run as becoming a leader in this market space.
murse_money
⋅
how did you even come to this conclusion?
The_Trend_Master
⋅
@murse_money, the price target is just a pure guess if that was what you were referring too. The real conclusion is just that I'm bullish
murse_money
⋅
@The_Trend_Master, it seems as though you are trying to pump it because this isn't the first idea for NUMI that you have posted like this and no one ever knows where a price will go.
The_Trend_Master
⋅
@murse_money, I am keeping people updated, and funny enough I've been right every time. There are so many people pumping stocks on tradingview but I'm actually providing in depth analysis instead of just putting 2-3 lines on the chart.