NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been trading within a 10-year Channel Up that displays some very distinct characteristics. It's Legs (both Bullish and Bearish) are highly cyclical, holding a strong symmetry among them. Based on the Sine Waves, we can see that following the 2018 and 2022 Cycle Tops, it is now 2026's turn to give a Cycle peak and start a long-term correction (Bearish Leg), technically a Bear Cycle.
The recent March rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), seems to technically delivering the final rise before a market Top, following a prolonged sideways market activity that resembles a lot the 2018 price action. The 1M RSI pattern has been on a huge Bearish Divergence since the June 24 2024 test on the 9-year Lower Highs Zone, which has always been an early signal of a Cycle Peak. As you can see, after the 1M RSI historically made a second touch on the Lower Highs Zone (red circles), the market didn't give much room for the price to rise further.
Basically the current situation resembles the September 2018 and March 2022 Highs. The 1M RSI sits around the overbought limit (70.00) with those past Highs (blue circles) initiating strong drops to the 42.00 Support. This is where NVIDIA historically bottoms and turns into a long-term Buy Opportunity again.
Based on the previous Bearish Legs, the price bottom (coinciding with the 1M RSI bottom) took place either extremely close (Dec 2018) or marginally below (Oct 2022) the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The same stands for the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
Right now the 1W MA200 is considerably above the 0.382 Fib, which also falls just outside of the multi-year Channel Up. It can only be tested if the market corrects aggressively, which doesn't seem to be the case. Based on its current trajectory and being the last long-term Support of the Bullish Leg since 2022, the minimum pull-back expectation we have for NVIDIA is the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) around $165.00, which also happens to be both the March 30 2026 and September 05 2025 Lows.
If the market closes a 1W candle below this, only then can we see an overextension of the correction towards the 1W MA200, which based on its current trajectory could take place around $125.00 and that seems now to be the maximum extension that a potential 2026 Bearish Leg can have.
Note that that would also be even less than the -57.77% of the 2022 Bear Cycle but it may be justified as this time the A.I. market is much more mature.
It has to be made clear though at this point that if the 1M RSI touches the 42.00 Support first (before any of the downside Targets), then NVIDIA turns into a long-term buy opportunity as mentioned, regardless of the price at the time.
---
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
---
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
The recent March rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), seems to technically delivering the final rise before a market Top, following a prolonged sideways market activity that resembles a lot the 2018 price action. The 1M RSI pattern has been on a huge Bearish Divergence since the June 24 2024 test on the 9-year Lower Highs Zone, which has always been an early signal of a Cycle Peak. As you can see, after the 1M RSI historically made a second touch on the Lower Highs Zone (red circles), the market didn't give much room for the price to rise further.
Basically the current situation resembles the September 2018 and March 2022 Highs. The 1M RSI sits around the overbought limit (70.00) with those past Highs (blue circles) initiating strong drops to the 42.00 Support. This is where NVIDIA historically bottoms and turns into a long-term Buy Opportunity again.
Based on the previous Bearish Legs, the price bottom (coinciding with the 1M RSI bottom) took place either extremely close (Dec 2018) or marginally below (Oct 2022) the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The same stands for the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
Right now the 1W MA200 is considerably above the 0.382 Fib, which also falls just outside of the multi-year Channel Up. It can only be tested if the market corrects aggressively, which doesn't seem to be the case. Based on its current trajectory and being the last long-term Support of the Bullish Leg since 2022, the minimum pull-back expectation we have for NVIDIA is the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) around $165.00, which also happens to be both the March 30 2026 and September 05 2025 Lows.
If the market closes a 1W candle below this, only then can we see an overextension of the correction towards the 1W MA200, which based on its current trajectory could take place around $125.00 and that seems now to be the maximum extension that a potential 2026 Bearish Leg can have.
Note that that would also be even less than the -57.77% of the 2022 Bear Cycle but it may be justified as this time the A.I. market is much more mature.
It has to be made clear though at this point that if the 1M RSI touches the 42.00 Support first (before any of the downside Targets), then NVIDIA turns into a long-term buy opportunity as mentioned, regardless of the price at the time.
---
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
---
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
I trade Crypto, Forex, Indices & Commodities on PrimeXBT — all from one account with TradingView charts 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/PrimeXBT
I also use TradeNation for fixed spreads & zero commission 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/Tradenation
I also use TradeNation for fixed spreads & zero commission 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/Tradenation
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
I trade Crypto, Forex, Indices & Commodities on PrimeXBT — all from one account with TradingView charts 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/PrimeXBT
I also use TradeNation for fixed spreads & zero commission 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/Tradenation
I also use TradeNation for fixed spreads & zero commission 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/Tradenation
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.