NVDA looks as though it has entered a distribution phase after reaching the 1.618 fib extension. Awaiting formation of UTAD (with low volume), to confirm the sell entry. Hard to gauge how far price will continue to rise in UTAD formation, so I would enter on the UTAD test, which will make it easier to spot full UTAD formation.
Take profit would be around $318 which would have price reaching the 1.618 fib extension. Coincidentally, this would fill the price gap between $318 - $366.
many traders losing their shirts shorting this and the pattern is blatantly obvious. i think we go higher.
BullBearBlair
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@Alphamoney870, I certainly have no crystal ball...I see you had posted an NVDA short idea back in April 2023, the H&S pattern was on a much shorter time frame. This Wyckoff Distribution looks to play out on a much larger timeframe, so I would put more faith into the larger time frame outlook of Wyckoff distribution at play. It is reminiscent of BTC Distribution at ATH (Nov 2021) in my opinion. Again, no crystal ball but I see us retracing in 2024. Any insight on why you think we go higher after such an extended bull run? Happy to be educated on another perspective!
achtung360
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No. Why short the company changing the world? No offense but that is not Wycoff
BullBearBlair
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@achtung360, Do you have any rationale why its price couldn't fall beyond, great company = price goes up regardless? There is fair value in all stocks, yes NVDA are market leaders and AI is the new hype train but prices are so inflated. Macro picture is a dominant force rather than Micro fundamentals. Why isn't this Wyckoff? Genuinely curious to hear your rationale, happy to have my mind changed!
paulksi
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@achtung360, how about AMD? They change the world too right? much more reasonable P/B ratio
SabahEquityResearch
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Perfect idea, good luck
Trade615
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What price we can short this
BullBearBlair
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@Trade615, I don't know of any measuring techniques to understand a typical price % increase between UT & UTAD, so I really have no clue how high this could go to then short. I would just look for the formation of the obvious UTAD and then await the test/retracement and enter there
BullBearBlair
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@Trade615, I think UTAD is forming now, so this would be the best price to enter short on IMO
TheTaxKid
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Which phase would we be in on the wyckoff distribution?