I warned about a very strong bull trap in NVDA on 28th July and now the stock has a fresh low. !
As discussed in previous idea , inverted flats in bear market are among the most difficult patterns to recognize. Lets review published idea first :
Now, What is next?
As shown on the chart , a zigzag correction is most likely forming in NVDA and the stock is currently in wave 5 of A of an ABC form of correction. Two suggested supports are shown on the chart by green lines. These lines coincide with 0.382 and 0.618 Fibo projection of wave 1-3 from top of wave 4 which are typical for end of wave 5. Suggested wave A which is (most probably) just the first large leg of correction will probably end at these supports. This means that stock may show a considerable counter trend correction (wave B) and a resumption of down trend (Wave C ) after that. It may take 12 to 18 months from now for completion of large degree ABC zigzag form of correction.
Picture inserted in the chart was captured from a very useful book written by Frost and Prechter titled : "Elliott wave principle key to market behavior " chapter 1, figures 1.22 and 1.23. As we can see current chart beautifully resembles text book example.
Please note this analysis may need update in future since corrective waves may take some complicated forms . Should it need any update, we can do it later.
I hope this analysis to be useful and wish you all the best.
Comment
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It is now on first proposed support. Do we have a bounce? Or it will reach to next support for completion of wave A?
Hey @SaeedSajedi great post :) I was wondering what book is the Zigzag in bull market picture from?
SaeedSajedi
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@MannyTman, Hi. Thanks. I had mentioned the reference in the text however I copied here for you again:
Picture inserted in the chart was captured from a very useful book written by Frost and Prechter titled : "Elliott wave principle key to market behavior " chapter 1, figures 1.22 and 1.23
Good Luck
wackerman
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You think we're going to see a retest of that bounce level?
SquishTrade
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This makes sense, and well done with your EW counts. I really like your discussion of the inverted expanded flat.
Here is my take (without EW analysis):
SaeedSajedi
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@SquishTrade, Thanks for nice words and thanks for sharing your idea here.