NVDA demonstrated astonishing move for market-type stock, gaining more than +230% since Jan 2023. Is there any upside left in the mid-term?
My analysis of the price structure suggest there at least on possibility for that in the mid-term, although...
... on Daily time-scale until price stays below 479 and Aug highs , I cannot rule out one more, potentially sharp and scary, move down to important mid-term support zone: 371-307 as per green count on the chart.
Under this scenario, the price needs to find support in this area and start building the bottom and the right side of the base/cup.
Alternatively, if price manages to consolidate above Sep low and create pivot around recent 476 highs, I would be eager to consider going long with price breaking above 479 with volume support.
Trading thesis: until price respects 479 short-term resistance area, I would lean towards the short side, with any consecutive lower-low being a shorting opportunity (orange circle on a chart above as a potential example) with stops above recent high.
Although mid-term analysis shows potential for at least one more leg up, in the short term we are in no mans land, with both sides (long/short) having technical arguments to support itself. I would wait for the dust to settle and high quality, low risk set-up to emerge before taking any decisive stance.
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NASDAQ:NVDA is acting well as par the operative short/mid-term bearish scenario.
The price may well bounce from this levels, but until it is bellow 450 I am expecting more downside targets to the ideal mid-term support zone of 370-307 area.
If we go straight down from here decisively bellow 389 level, 360 and 340 are the short-term targets.
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Oct 2023 support area worked well.
Price got substantial extension in its potential fifth wave and now reached next important resistance zone: 930-1015
Big reversal day on Friday on a big volume advance could be the first sign that the impulsive move needs to at least rest from here. Break and daily bellow 8 then 21 emas could be interpreted as an additional topping signs with break and close bellow 50 and 10w moving average (especially with a high volume) as a substantial signs of at least mid-term to long-term top.
If price holds 21 ema, 50d or 10w ma, follow-up to new ATH towards 1130-1190 area would be my preference.
I would consider buying this only if I see: price breaking out above short-term resistance of 479, with substantial volume support (on an inter-day 30min/1h bar). Staying open-minded on this one.
Although, I would be cautious sizing the trade large due to: 1. Still very narrow market participation and week consecutive NH/NL numbers; 2. Indexes are yet bellow 50D MA (week trading environment for my style).
I can even, consider small short trade, if price will not able to re-take and stay above 479 level (ex. reversing by the end of the day) with stops above 480 and 503 pivots. Staying open minded on this one.