NVDA Earnings & GEX - 99% PoP Strategy With Full Management Plan

Feb 25

🔶 NVDA Earnings Structure – Risk-Managed Omni-Directional Approach

This material is for educational purposes only; TanukiTrade is not a financial advisor, we only an Expert Options Trader Hub and nothing here constitutes investment advice or a recommendation.

NVDA reports earnings tonight.

The VIX clearly shows that volatility is being held elevated — it has been rising over the past 1–2 weeks.

Let’s look at how you can reduce risk as much as possible if you want to trade the earnings report with an omni-directional multi-leg structure.

🔶 Market Structure – Using GEX Profile & Options Oscillator

• The implied move priced by the market is ±5.52%
  
• Base IV and put skew have been rising for weeks
  
• Call skew has been fading
  

This suggests that instead of the previous strong upside optimism, participants have started hedging NVDA downside risk. The two yellow arrows reflect this shift.

🔶 What Is Currently Priced In? (Objective GEX View)

Using the usual GEX profile cheat sheet (see at bottom):

🔵 [192–200] Positive Gamma Profile (we are here now)
🟢 [200–210] Positive Squeeze Zone in case of FOMO
🔴 [187] HVL → acceleration of downside below this level
🔵 [170–190] Already priced-in selloff range – Transition Zone

Currently we are still in positive GEX territory, but before a binary event this guarantees nothing.

Below 187 (HVL), downside can accelerate rapidly.

The turquoise transition zone (170–190) suggests that a moderate correction is already priced in. The market is unlikely to collapse within this range — at most a structured pullback toward put support.

Mixed call- and put-dominated GEX levels exist down to 170. Above the 200 EMA, minor pullbacks structurally do not change much.

🔶 What About a Very Negative Surprise?

🔴 Below 170 → Armageddon Surprise Zone

Below put support at 170:

• 165 minor level
  
• 150 previous high / demand zone
  
• 140 negative gamma squeeze zone
  

A true structural shock would require price trading below 170.

Only then do we enter territory where the next strong demand cluster sits significantly lower.

🔶 4️⃣ How to Use the 140+ Region Effectively

There is no such thing as “risk-free” in options.
However, assume NVDA is currently 195$ and you would gladly buy at 140$.
In that case, downside naked short put component trades may come into play.

These structures:

• Have no upside risk (credit-based)
  
• Can benefit from IV collapse after earnings
  
• Offer multiple adjustment paths
  

A PUT ladder structure is one example idea.



🔶 Why This Structure?

• 93–99% Probability of Profit
  
• Lower breakeven ~ -27% from current price
  
• ~5× further than the implied move
  
• Fully credit-based upside
  
• 79 days provide ample time to manage assignment risk
  

🔶 Scenario Management

🟢 If NVDA moves higher after earnings:

• You lose nothing
  
• You collect 40–50$ from IV collapse
  
• The 150 short put can be rolled up toward 170
  
• Structure can evolve into a put ratio with additional credit
  

🔴 If NVDA moves lower after earnings:
The structure can open quickly over a few days, but:

• Breakeven remains protected by prior 150 structure
  
• 140 acts as strong demand / negative gamma zone
  

🔴Management options:

• Let time decay work; buy cheaper protective put near breakeven
  
• Accept cash-secured assignment below 140 and transition into Covered Calls
  
• Roll down 170/180 put credit spread
  
• Open a credit call vertical to balance delta
  

🔶 Final Thought

We do not enter earnings hoping for a miracle.

We enter with a complete management plan.

The GEX profile does not predict direction —
it provides structural context.

And before a binary event, structure is everything:

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🔶 Appendix - GEX Profile CHEATSHEET for Tradingview

Feb 25

Note

Feb 27

Trade active

UPDATE: one day later already in $40 profit - even whilée the stock falling -5%

Apr 7

Trade closed: target reached

PROFIT GRABBED

Just for the record......
~40 days later the time has passed => profit grabbed

Good R:R = hihg PoP theta play = Job done.