$NVDA, Today on CNBC, I saw a money manager say he...

NVDA, Today on CNBC, I saw a money manager say he bought more NVIDIA Corporation today. He believes the fundamentals are so strong that the stock will never experience a major correction.

In my view, that suggests he hasn’t studied market history. Betting that a stock will never have a major correction is a low-probability bet.

After extended trends, the odds eventually shift. At some point, bullish momentum becomes overextended and the probability of a bearish move increases. I believe the market may already be at that point.

Right now, I estimate there is roughly a 60% chance that this year-long range eventually breaks to the downside. If NVDA were to reach $250, the probability of a major correction could rise to around 80%.

That conclusion isn’t based on opinion—it comes from studying more than 150 years of market history and high-growth companies. The pattern appears again and again: even the strongest companies eventually experience meaningful corrections after extended runs.