NVDA is on its last leg of support, if it loses this area we are looking at $115 as the next support level
HOWEVER, I'm spotting signals of capitulation as I highlighted in yellow - steep decline with elevated volume. In the past NVIDIA usually bounces after this type of price action and we have now touched the bottom of this descending supportive channel that its respected since last summer.
Thanks for your charts and analysis. Well done with your trendlines. I agree if NVDA loses support, 115 is in play. I'm not sure it's the right time yet to step in, though you could be right. The lower low recently under July's low was not a good sign. We'll see what happens! Here is my September 12 analysis:
heavy_assault
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if they don't return to 15%+ QoQ growth within 2 quarters time, might drop to $70 pretty quickly. nvda is by far the biggest bubble on the market, far worse than tesla.
ChaldeaCode
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@heavy_assault, are you bearish overall or just specifically nvda?
heavy_assault
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@ChaldeaCode, nvda. this stock is priced to takeover the galaxy.
heavy_assault
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@ChaldeaCode, wouldn't be surprised to see another big downgrade while the share price pumps to new ATH, just like the last downgrade beginning of august, 2 tiny red days then pump to the moon. and the Q2 earnings on 25th august with that HUGE Q3 miss over $1 billion, it still pumps to the moon anyway.
so no im not really bearish on nvda's share price, its the biggest darling in history of the stock market pumped up by manipulators who are extremely infatuated with nvda. what im bearish on is the distance between nvda's actual intrinsic value vs today's share price value, this distance is far longer than the distance of the observable universe. the main reason for this distance is the HYPE nvda has, literally the MOST OVERHYPED THING in the history of mankind, elon musk + tesla + GME + AMC + ryan cohen + cyberbunk 2077+all overhyped movies+..., added together, is still 0% of nvda's hype.
nvda's darling status makes apple look like a penny stock filing chapter 11.
ChaldeaCode
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@heavy_assault, good info, thanks for sharing! Nvidia has been beaten down badly already. I wouldn’t be bearish unless it closes below support. It did create a new gap to the downside on Friday so I’m expecting volatility beginning of week for CPI.
heavy_assault
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@ChaldeaCode, nvda is barely down from ATH. $150 was the absolutely ceiling. i remember a stock which i lost a ton of money on, in an interview a well known fundie said "you'll have to put your hand over anything above $12, because it was so overbought and overpriced, people will stop asking whether it's a buy if the top was $12". that stock topped out in the 40s, when it should of never gone above $10. ofc that stock is a very very very low quality garbage hot air company like nikola, GME etc, whereas nvda's underlying business is high quality.
the idea is the same, anything above $150 for nvda you have to cover up with your hands. so it's 2% down from ATH right now. another example is nickel prices, is nickel a huge bargain right now when it's down ~70% from ATH? you'll have to cover up that march 2022 tsingshan vs hedge funds shenanigan, and nickel is still near ATH. GME is down 75% from ATH, has it been beaten down badly already? the same logic applies to nvda, $150 was the absolute top, nvda hasn't dropped at all.
Here is my September 12 analysis: