It seems highly unlikely that we'll see any lower than March's. Most indicators on the daily still suggest we've seen a reversal. This recent sell of looks like more of a retracement, IMO. Plus, look at the DXY and us10year yield. Both have been needing some kind of consolidation for a while, and will likely impact growth in a positive way. Interesting concept though.
Liametric
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Also, today will probably end with a bullish engulfing candle. That, paired with retracement, I would see that as pretty bullish moving forward.
logicalBird1984
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@Liametric, some good points. Looks like we hit the target almost on the nose last Thursday. And we did see some exhaustion selling the week before. Let's see how things go next week. I think this stock will snap back hard given how hard its been beat down over the past year or so. Hope you end up being right in the end. I was buying at 5.30. Let's see what happens next week. Good luck!
Liametric
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@logicalBird1984, Macro conditions really pummeled this stock. A bit irrational, but almost everything in the stock market is. Nevertheless, yours was the right call, though even your projection was still tame compared to the actual fallout. That this stock is trading at such a low valuation right now is beyond unreasonable, but it's a good place to accumulate. With GDP dropping on last report, the dollar relaxed, but today's PCE report threw bonds for another spiral, with yields once again climbing. Yet the spread between 2's and 10's seems to be narrowing. Seems like rate hikes and FED discussion next week will be center stage for the market. I wouldn't be surprised if we see further downside until some kind of announcement... and yet there's earnings, too. So, who the hell knows, really? And will oversold conditions force a bounce? lol I'd like to say yes.
Anyway, good call, mate. Cheers!
logicalBird1984
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@Liametric, Thanks! My guess is we'll see a 50 point basis hike this Wednesday. Market already priced it in. Then FED will start backing off until end of the year. Pressure will remain on stocks for the next month or so until FED starts buying commodities again. I'm looking at around early June for new highs. And we should be in next leg higher by September. We might have hit bottom last week if Biden can't stop himself from getting us in another war. Let's pray he calls for peace instead of calling Putin a "mad man".
logicalBird1984
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@logicalBird1984, update: I think we are still in track to see new highs later this year but it will not be June. That thought was made in haste. I see a huge turn around sometime this month (May) and new highs by August or late July (if Biden can retain himself from calling Putin names and doesn't try to start WW3). Ukraine is a MAJOR DISTRACTION.