As usual, I have copied and pasted the cover chart within these comments for easier view of text bubbles:
Here is a link to an image of Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1: https://imgur.com/nOJl0Dd
Here is a link to an image of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2: https://imgur.com/945poSJ
Here is a link with "basic" understanding of Wyckoff and his teachings: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?i...
Famous quote of Wyckoff:
”…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.”
Wyckoff referred to them as the Composite Man. I refer to them as the "Composite Group."
We appear to be in the "late" stages of Phase "B" in both Schematics. So, lets look at Wykoff's description of Phase B in "both" schematics:
First, Wyckoff remarks on Phase B of Distribution Schematic #2:
Phase B: The function of phase B is to build a cause in preparation for a new downtrend. During this time, institutions and large professional interests are disposing of their long inventory and initiating short positions in anticipation of the next markdown. The points about phase B in distribution are similar to those made for phase B in accumulation, except that the large interests are net sellers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. This process leaves clues that the supply/demand balance has tilted toward supply instead of demand. For instance, SOWs are usually accompanied by significantly increased spread and to the downside.
And his remarks on upcoming Phase C: [By the way, TR = Trading Range; NOT a stock to trade]
Phase C: In distribution, phase C may reveal itself via an upthrust (UT) or UTAD. As noted above, a UT is the opposite of a spring. It is a price move above TR resistance that quickly reverses and closes in the TR . This is a test of the remaining demand. It is also a bull trap—it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality is intended to “wrong-foot” uninformed break-out traders. A UT or UTAD allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to sell additional shares at elevated prices to such break-out traders and investors before the markdown begins. In addition, a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move.
Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after a UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the “smart money” repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until phase D and an LPSY.
Often demand is so weak in a distribution TR that price does not reach the level of the BC or initial ST . In this case, phase C's test of demand may be represented by a UT of a lower high within the TR .
So, their's a possibility we may not go as high as some may think. Yes, it's going up at least "near" the top of the trading range in my opinion. Could it go higher and negate Phase "E" ??? Not sure, time will tell...
Notes will be provided shortly for Wyckoff remarks on Phase B of Accumulation Schematic #1:
Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide, accompanied by high volume. As the professionals absorb the supply, however, the volume on downswings within the TR tends to diminish. When it appears that supply is likely to have been exhausted, the stock is ready for Phase C.
Phase C: It is in phase C that the stock price provides goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing the “smart money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. As noted above, a spring is a price move below the support level of the TR established in phases A and B that quickly reverses and moves back into the TR. It is an example of a bear trap because the drop below support appears to signal resumption of the downtrend. In reality, though, this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers, or bears. In Wyckoff's method, a successful test of supply represented by a spring (or a shakeout) provides a high-probability trading opportunity. A low-volume spring (or a low-volume test of a shakeout) indicates that the stock is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position.
The appearance of a SOS shortly after a spring or shakeout validates the analysis. As noted in Accumulation Schematic #2, however, the testing of supply can occur higher up in the TR without a spring or shakeout; when this occurs, the identification of phase C can be challenging.
I recommend you divide up into 3rd's what you're willing to invest in your trading with this pair.
One 3rd for an entry NOW.
Second 3rd held in reserve for a pull back
Final 3rd held in reserve for Sign of Strength (SOS)
If there is no pull back, you decide on if and/or when that other 3rd is to be engaged at a point of your choosing.
Looks like it WILL be going up soon. How soon? It's hard to say, It's a VERY SLOW MOVER. This can turn up 2 hours from now but looks like it may take another 2 to 8 days before anything considerable. Does this mean wait to buy? It's your choice. I've made entry all around our current range and simply waiting.
I'm NOT responsible for any trades made based off my analysis.
IF you look at ALL USD PAIRS ON POLONIEX, you might be saying the same thing on EVERY SINGLE OTHER PAIR besides BCH and BTC. ALL OTHER COINS ARE RED. They are simply creating FUD.
Also,we have many traders selling alts to get into bitcoin and bitcoin cash. Which means whales are currently getting (accumulating) some cheap alt coins.