NXT is turning into the king of December with setup after setup giving us great entry and reentry points.
We're currently in another Bull Flag/Bull Pennant.
A break above the top would signal an entry point - A word of caution on this one though. We're right below the longterm trend line, so I could enter at .695 only to see us bounce off the longterm trendline at .72; however the overall trend and fundamentals are so bullish on this coin that I'm not overly concerned.
If we make it through the trendline:
Target 1: previous All time high (I'll be taking 25% off the table here) Target 2: The length of the flagpole added to the top of the flag (note: the pattern suggest a gain of 80-110% of the flagpole, so I'll be keeping an eye on this range for reversal or consolidation, either of which will se me taking another 25% off the table). Target 3 is the extension of the Fib, it's also right below the $1 mark which should be a significant psychological hurdle.
Overall, note: I pretty confident at this point that this coin will go over $2 this month, with a reach goal of $5. All of these entries and exits are meant to increase my pile of NXT, while protecting my trading bankroll.
See my previous ideas on NXT for an explanation of the Ignis air drop on the 28th or to see how my other trades have worked out.
Comment
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Here is the ascending triangle (bullish), which suggests a trend reversal. wait for a clear break above the top edge if you would like to reneter after being stopped out.
Thomas, do you think NXT will fall after 28 December in connection with a fork Ignis? And what approximately will be the cost of Ignis?
Tmoran
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@versohner, That, I can't say. This isn't actually a fork. This is a feature of NXT. Each child of the old NXT blockchain was required to distribute 10% evenly among NXT coin holders. Imagine if every ERC20 ICO had to give 10% of their coins to ETH holders. ETH would be worth 100k by now.
That said NXT does not launch as many coins; however, that may be changing. Ignis is actually a grandchild chain. Ardor the child of NXT apparently came up with an easy way to launch new coins, the first of which is Ignis.
Some predict Ardor will make NXT obsolete, and that this is NXT last hurrah. Others argue this is only the beginning, and NXT will flush with all this capital (they'll sell some of thier stake and Ignis during this period I'm sure) and will use that capital to go on to incubate more coins that will further increase the Value of NXT.
I lean toward the later, so I'll hold on to a portion of these profit coins for the long run, but I would expect a rather large dip in the short term.
My trading funds in the meanwhile will move on to whatever coin(s) have the best charts/potential for profit in January :)
versohner
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@Tmoran, On the chart ascending triangle - this means that the price will increase to ~10 cents i.e. the height of the triangle? Or rise to the level of 0.74, and 0.84 and then?
Tmoran
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@versohner, Typically, 80-110% of the height of the triangle is where you would set your final target. This isn't because that is as high as it can go, it's because that is where you would expect a period of consolidation, the formation of another triangle. Typically for me that would be target 2.
Target 1 would be 50% of the height of the triangle.
Here we got a break around 56.5 and made it up to 61.5 about 50% of the triangle (Note: I wasn't actually active in this trade because I'm still mostly in from the .42 entry I posted previously, my reentry of take profits didn't liquify since we didn't hit .75).
Tmr
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can you update as its falling. I am still holding so I think better hold then sell in loss.Thanks
Tmoran
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@Tmr, Well, if you didn't have a stop set, there is not much sense in selling now that the coin has bounced off of .50 and looks like it's headed back up. I would recommend playing without a stop. I don't think of it as selling at a loss, I think of it as a likely opportunity to increase my holding. Since the stop is the edge of a likely substantial drop off.
Take for example our current situation. Say I had 1000 NXT. I stopped out at .60 and have 600USDT. I rebuy at the current price which is .545. I now have 1100 NXT. When that goes up to .60 again I'll have 660 USDT. I'll have made 10% even though the coin is flat over this time period.
While 60 and 50 were likely turning points the coin could have gone down to 40-42.
So for now, yes, hold, but in the future I'd recommend using the stops.
Tmoran
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@Tmoran, BTW my longterm chart for 12/27 suggests $1.50-$2.00 with linear growth; $3.50-$6.50 if growth become exponential.
versohner
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And if you is not difficult, explain to me how to understand to what level will drop the price after such peaks?
versohner
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1)How do you think how quickly the price rises ranged from 0.74 to 0.85? It will be as fast as 6 Dec from 22:30 to 23:00?
2)And approximately to what level will drop the price from 0.85?
And I want to thank you for these graphics, thanks to them, I'm with ~100$ earned ~1000$! Of course it's not much, but considering that I traded for the first time and started doing this 3 weeks ago, I think it is a great result. I hope you will continue to spread, and I'm trying to learn to analyze charts.
3)I Can give advice on what a beginner to start to learn technical analysis and is there a "manual"tools for treadingview?
Tmoran
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@versohner, Congratulations on turning 100 into 1000! That is a great return.
1. If the price remains below the longer term trendline we could take a slow walk up to .74 within 24 hrs then .85 in another 24; However if the price breaks the trendline with volume (the bars at the bottom) to back it up we could jump up to 85 in less than two hours. Or we could bounce off the .74 again. The three possibilities are the reason for the multiple targets.
*Time is the hardest thing to predict in trading.
2. The drops. I usually do not try to call drops and rebuy. Buying on the decline is call catching a falling knife. Since the price is more likely to keep falling than to change direction, it is a recipe for loosing money. Instead, I wait for the drop. Wait for a consolidation pattern (usually a triangle or wedge, which is an incomplete triangle) moving sideways. I identify the upper boundary and place a buy safely above that point. If the boundary is broken upward most of the time it will rise to a significant level (the previous swing high).
Successful trading seems to me to be about waiting. Waiting for the right set up. Waiting patiently for your target to be hit. Waiting for the next set up.
3. If you're looking to learn to chart - I studied forex trading first. They have a long history of success in a much tougher market.
If you specifically like the kind of charts I've been positing on NXT, the only tools you need to look up are trendlines, fibonocci levels, Ichimoku Cloud, MACD, and RSI