I entered a short position at 0.9515 at a double top formation hoping that the price would return to test and break the trend line formed since 27th November 2015. It broke that price to test the upper trend line dating back to April 2015 so now I am waiting for a daily close below this trend line as confirmation the price may retrace. I entered this trade prematurely to try and snatch a few extra pips but should have really waited for the daily confirmation as have risked more and reduced my risk reward ratio.
I only took a small position so if I do get the confirmation that I should have originally waited for then I can add to the position. My first target before adding to the position will be a clean break below 0.9390. From here I will target 0.9000 and possibly 0.8800 which is support dating back to September 2015 as long as none of the fib levels create a range.
Fundamentally I don't have too much bias on this trade but I feel neither are likely to cut rates soon. The fundamental reason for this trade to work out would be for oil to start retracing higher and as it is at extreme lows this may be possible.
Comments are welcome with constructive criticism as it all aids to learning.
Trade active
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@ 0.9515
Trade closed manually
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@ 0.23 fib retracement. Will re-enter on daily close below this level.