SCENARIO 1: Last time we hit 0.960 was in March of 2014. The downside move had massive follow-through. However this time around we hit 0.960 and had little follow-through respecting the ascending trendline as support once again and price looks as if it wants to test 0.960 once more. A strong psychological level of 0.960 acting as resistance paired with the Dec. 2014 trendline is forming somewhat of a steep ascending triangle 'squeezing' price. This pattern usually results in a break to the upside.
SCENARIO 2: On the other hand, we can look for shorts if this pair rejects 0.960, breaks the 2014 ascending trendline support and retests the underside as resistance with a high-test candle(s) showing a rejection of higher prices. Even in this scenario I wouldn't take a short due to my personal bias remaining bullish due to the overall long term bullish trend.
SCENARIO 3: Upon scenario 2 unfolding we could still be in an even bigger ascending triangle pattern from the 2011 trendline support (the red zigzag lines)
You need to be MUCH more specific in your analysis.
Sorry but three 'possible scenarios' is completely pointless, we continuously sit with this dilemma but we are all seeking enlightenment.
Daniel.L
⋅
This analysis is more of an open-ended neutral one, meaning there is no real 'long' or 'short' signal presenting itself yet (although the bias is bullish). The three scenarios are put forth to give some people an idea of the more probable trading opportunities to come in addition to what I see happening on the chart at the moment. Nothing will ever be certain in this type of game and everything is a 'possible outcome / scenario' so by your logic trading itself is completely pointless. As a trader you need to always be on your toes by predicting price ahead of time and reacting to different possible scenarios as they unveil themselves. Even with the most specific analyses the market can go off in the complete opposite direction. I'm sorry if this post disappointed you and I hope some of my others are more useful to you! :D Good luck trading!
You need to be MUCH more specific in your analysis.
Sorry but three 'possible scenarios' is completely pointless, we continuously sit with this dilemma but we are all seeking enlightenment.