NZDCAD: Looking for a short next week

FX:NZDCAD   New Zealand Dollar/Canadian Dollar
6225 29 208
Unlike most of my trades, this trade is mainly based on fundamental analysis . I am looking for a final confirmation to short next week as we approach the RBNZ decision, where i expect an interest rate cut and more dovish signals from the bank. Meantime, I expect crude oil             to correct higher in the short coming period, and that may support the canadian dollar             . I will wait for a small bounce higher before shorting.

All my ideas are just my personal view. Trade Your own view.

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Comment: We might get a confirmation for the short today, but still waiting.
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About rate cut of RNBZ, why not short NZDUSD, or other NZD pair? I guess your choice is dictated by confirmation of rising oil price.
fxfxfx xiiimik
This pair could give more pips than the others. RNBZ rate cut pulling NZD in one direction while higher oil prices pulling the CAD in the opposite direction = higher profit margin.
+5 Reply
Agree, If oil rises, cad could be supported. At the end, it is a speculation game.
+3 Reply
fxfxfx Technician
I see a rise in the short term but I am not so sure about the long term. Let's hope for a more expensive oil this week, high enough to close this trade and to open a new chapter in your trading life where fundamental analysis leads your path ;)
hello xiimik, as you can see the rally in oil supported the canadian dollar and actually it is up against the dollar in the past few days. Meantime, NZDUSD is under pressure following the RBNZ. And that resulted in the scenario i speculated on.
+1 Reply
Mrs, Loaay that's look a good one to risk with ;)
i've already short NZD/CAD on Friday, a little bit early I guess, if it move higher early this week as you preject, i will add short position. and I also short the pair based on fundamental perspectives. good luck
Best of luck
Thanks for sharing. I have the same set up, looking to short at 0.9475 (supply zone).
I started shorting on Thursday and again Friday. We could expect to see it test the 0.95000 level before starting the real bearish move. In that case I will be adding another short to it :)

Thanks for sharing!
There is a very good chance it will go all the way up to the weekly resistance line I don't see on your chart, but that is close to the previous 4 hour tops on your chart, before either bouncing back or B/O. I would wait for the evidence of either before risking money. Good luck.
I think i said i am waiting for confirmation.
You are awesome thanks .
Any setup? Shall we short or wait for a confirmation?
salarfeen newwarez2
He clearly said twice he is waiting for confirmation.
Agree with your idea
great work
Thank you for the analysis. I am new to forex trading and doing my best to learn. This helps and makes sense. Thank you!
Great post.
Don't you consider any FIB retracement after breaking the 240 trend line?
may i know ur entry point ?
I was analyzing wether to enter a trade in this pair and found this on the weekly, I always like to check higher time intervals first. It's a rough idea, but worth to look. There might be a huge short but it seems early now.
Good time do short after nzd news?
Technician TOP BrunoSalles
I wouldnt not rush it. I still prefer to wait a bit more and see how today things settle after the facts.
+3 Reply
What do you want to see before shorting?
I want to see how the price behaves today, where it settles.
Casey_Yeo Technician
something like lower high or double top or whatever patterns?
i was hoping to see a shorter term pin bar , but the fall was quick.
Are you in yet? I'm waiting on NU's reaction to the strong resistance as well.
@Technician looks like the short might be around the corner. It is heading to Resistance again. What do you think?
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