Well, I guess I am a Kiwi bull for now. Rationale is in the chart.
EDIT: FONTERRA just announced a major dividend cut and reduced forward guidance. That's a pretty big deal. FONTERRA is to NZ what mining is to AU. Before deciding how to act be sure to give this some serious thought. Should help us get to the entry point. We'll see.
Comments
ForceFollower
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It looks like it's going to double the range (like in my post tradingview.com/v/JYwNiV45/), but I'm afraid your 'hopeful entry point' may not get revisited before it shoots higher. Anyway, the first target is at 0.89600.
sedemmler
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You may well be correct. I'd rather miss opportunities than jump in before I'm comfortable though.
ForceFollower
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I'm also OK with missing the opportunities. But considering a nice and relatively secure spike low that served as a launch pad for the current rally, a higher entry price (like at your red line) seems to be warranted. I'm not trying to talk you into anything though. :-) This market has been very choppy last days, so your cautious approach is very smart.
sedemmler
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I think we're on the edge of hitting that entry point here. USD/CAD failed a few times at 1.07 and the nzd/jpy is really top heavy and needs a correction before (I think) sky rocketing. But like I said on the aud/cad chart, the Loonie which has been a weaker currency is now flirting with major monetary policy changes that would make it even weaker. So who knows. Tomorrow afternoon (EST) Graham Wheeler speaks, which is often a catalyst for fireworks in the Kiwi pairs.
sedemmler
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Check that out: we hit the entry point. I actually held off because of our proximity to Wheeler and the monetary policy statement tonight. And, of course, the Fonterra news. I think we can get an even sweeter entry point.
ForceFollower
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Yes. I give you that. To the pip. It was worth waiting... It's just the Kiwi itself that bothers me, it's got too weak to bet on, by my standards... The loonie's strength doesn't seem to be sustainable, though, so I'm OK going short CAD. But overall it looks good to go up.
sedemmler
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The Fonterra bit was very disconcerting for the Kiwi yesterday. I think today's Kiwi monetary policy news was enough to at least counter it and put us back on trend. CAD has shown some strength lately, but that's got to be profit taking because where would strength be coming from?