sedemmler
Long

NZD/CAD -- Looking for a long shot.

FX:NZDCAD   New Zealand Dollar/Canadian Dollar
59 3 1
Rationale in the chart.
Yes, that's fine, I agree about the CAD, but the NZD has weakened recently and I'm not so sure, if we can still rely on its strength. Other than the sterling, which is still doing very well, it's the JPY and the CHF that became stronger than the kiwi so I have got my misgivings about this ccy.
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sedemmler ForceFollower
Fair enough. But even if this cross drifts sideways (a slower NZD doesn't mean a stronger CAD, which is a mess at the moment), then the carry trade here - especially after the rate hike - could produce a decent return. The only major risk here as it stands today would be an about-face on the part of CAD. That seems unlikely to me. What do you think?
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ForceFollower sedemmler
An about-face on the CAD? Very unlikely, like up to 10%. It's like one of the safest things to rely on here. I mean a correction is possible and will happen sooner or later, but after it's done, some kind of resumption is to be expected.
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