Short NZDCHF Longterm based on 4H + 1D Charts + Fundamentals

Strong downtrend since the start of 2017, making lower highs. Price is locked into a strong downward channel based on the 4H chart
Hidden divergence on the close of the 4H candle at 18:00 on 31st May shows the strong continuation of downward momentum.
We see a possible Bearish Head & Shoulders pattern forming on the 4H chart.

Fundamentals:
The RBNZ disappointed some investors last month by remaining relatively dovish on interest rates despite some stronger local data. New Zealand’s interest rates are at record lows, and the central bank has suggested that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable time based largely on the uncertain global picture. The Kiwi currency is still expected to remain weak with no interest rate hikes expected until early 2019.

The Swiss Franc (CHF), a noted safe-haven currency, continues to get stronger. Rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia have seen the Swiss Franc making strong gains, benefitting from an increased demand for safe-haven assets. If the deadlock over the Syrian conflict continues then the Franc could remain on a bullish trend , in spite of the threat of market intervention from the Swiss National Bank (SNB).

A 3.9 percent jump in exports in the three months through March helped push economic growth to 0.3 percent. While that fell short of the 0.5 percent forecast in a Bloomberg survey, it’s still the strongest performance in three quarters.

I will look to short the NZDCHF with my stop loss at the conservative 0.70142 rate.

This research is for informational purposes and should not be construed as personal advice. Trading any financial market involves risk. Trading on leverage involves risk of losses greater than deposits.


Please comment below and Like if you agree with my analysis.

Trade active:

With downwards divergence forming and the 30M candle about to close bearish, I am entering aggressively at this point for highest entry level.

Please trade safely and best of luck to all.

Comment:

Keeping this running - hasn't gone exactly the way I would have liked, however, momentum is still down and we are now 90% overbought on the hourly candle, 94% on the 4H candle and 87% on the daily candle. May not see this in the money until tomorrow but I'll keep monitoring.

Trade closed manually:

I am closing my position on NZDCHF and will look to re-enter from the top. I will update this page accordingly.

Trade active:

I re-opened position from 0.69153
Please always trade cautiously and best of luck to everyone entering.

Trade closed manually:

Closing this trade as a loss guys.
Price is respecting the EMA50+200 crossover (golden cross) on both the 1H + 4H charts. I try to avoid trading against averages normally.

Trade active:

Rejected resistance looks good, will continue to monitor. Caught entry at 0.69772

Trade closed: stop reached