NZDCHF Potential Long Setup #3 (High Probability Reaction)

Dec 13, 2025

MAIN TIME FRAME: 20H (Directional Bias)

Bullish Bias Confirmed

1.) Long-term trendline break

2.) SuperTrend flipped to green

3.) EMA 14 crossed above EMA 50 after prolonged consolidation

4.) Ichimoku Cloud breakout after extended ranging

5.) Back-to-back Wide Divergences confirmed after resistance break (rare setup)

6.) Fresh bullish structure forming

TRADE SETUP

1.) Support Zone

--> 2 clean rejections
--> Recently formed and aligned with prior structure
--> Previous support/resistance flip
--> Very clear and easy to identify
--> Wide Divergence neckline
--> Right shoulder of an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern

2.) Candlestick Confirmation

--> Inside bar (short-covering & consolidation)
--> Spinning bottom (indecision at support)
--> Bullish engulfing candle (buyer dominance)

3.) SuperTrend aligned with bullish bias

ENTRY TIME FRAME: 1H

Break of trendline and resistance confirms Wide Divergence on RSI, MACD, and Stochastic, aligned with the bullish 20H bias.

Stop Loss (20H Based)

Below:
- support zone
- Wick rejections
- SuperTrend line
- EMA 50
- Fibonacci 38.2%
(Multi-layer protection)

TAKE PROFIT TARGETS (20H Based)

TP1

- Recent swing high
- Slanted neckline

TP2

- Fibonacci extension 50%–61.8%

TP3

- Fibonacci extension 100%

If you enjoy clean, rule-based, and objective trading ideas, consider following for more high-probability setups.
Your thoughts are welcome in the comments.

Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk. Always conduct your own analysis. I am not responsible for any losses resulting from the use of this idea.

Dec 15, 2025

Trade active

🔄 Update – Waiting for Confirmation
Without a clear trend-change confirmation on the 1H chart, the setup cannot be considered valid.
I remain neutral and focused on how the 20H candle closes before reassessing the idea.

Dec 16, 2025

Order cancelled

Update: Trade idea canceled.
No valid H1 confirmation, so the setup is no longer valid based on my rules.

Additionally, the 20H candle broke support, which shifts the structure.
For now, a bullish scenario is not an option for me until conditions change.