NZDJPY Seasonality Forecast, February 2022
Left Chart:
This chart finds the historical odds of what two pivot points we have closed between by the end of every February.
The distribution of historical closes between any two pivots has a fairly uniform distribution, with 62% of closes between S1 and R1.
Odds of closing above R1 is 16% and below S1 is 22%, combined the odds of closing past those pivots is 38% historically.
Middle Chart:
This chart finds the historical odds that tops have come in between any two pivot points in the month of February. Historically, 67% of highs for the month were above the H1 pivot.
Using the Probability Weighted Pivot, the orange dotted line, we get an average high historically around R1. Which translates to 78.436 for this month's pivots.
Right Chart:
Instead of looking at highs, this chart looks at where we bottom out between any two pivots in the month of February.
The low probabilities are also fairly uniform, but the historical probabilities are split 60/40, that is above/below, the S1 pivot.
The Probability Weighted Pivot sits above S1 and priced at 74.584, meaning on average the moves to the downside are smaller in the month of February than the moves to the upside for NZDJPY.
All together:
February is the kind of month where price action can be characterized by initial moves like a high past R1, and a low past S1; and then a reversal back inside of S1 - R1 range to close the month. The main risk is how to trade the month's end. As the distribution of historical closes in February are very uniform.
The indicators used are Wayne's Pivots Pro and Pivot Probabilities.
This chart finds the historical odds of what two pivot points we have closed between by the end of every February.
The distribution of historical closes between any two pivots has a fairly uniform distribution, with 62% of closes between S1 and R1.
Odds of closing above R1 is 16% and below S1 is 22%, combined the odds of closing past those pivots is 38% historically.
Middle Chart:
This chart finds the historical odds that tops have come in between any two pivot points in the month of February. Historically, 67% of highs for the month were above the H1 pivot.
Using the Probability Weighted Pivot, the orange dotted line, we get an average high historically around R1. Which translates to 78.436 for this month's pivots.
Right Chart:
Instead of looking at highs, this chart looks at where we bottom out between any two pivots in the month of February.
The low probabilities are also fairly uniform, but the historical probabilities are split 60/40, that is above/below, the S1 pivot.
The Probability Weighted Pivot sits above S1 and priced at 74.584, meaning on average the moves to the downside are smaller in the month of February than the moves to the upside for NZDJPY.
All together:
February is the kind of month where price action can be characterized by initial moves like a high past R1, and a low past S1; and then a reversal back inside of S1 - R1 range to close the month. The main risk is how to trade the month's end. As the distribution of historical closes in February are very uniform.
The indicators used are Wayne's Pivots Pro and Pivot Probabilities.
Joe Baus, bausbenchmarks.com