NZD vs JPY Kumo Breakout

FX:NZDJPY   New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen
259 0 1
Today with price closing outside of the Kumo this represents bearish sentiment with the ichimoku system. Price has not been on the bearish side of the Kumo since breaking the Kumo July 4th of 2012. Nice long bullish run! That bullish run really started in June of 2012 @ 57.985 until the high of 86.430. Knowing this you might want to look at the monthly time frame to understand why I like the short trade here. From that low of 57.985 to the high of 86.430 a 50% fibonacci retracement would place me at the monthly support @ the Kijun-Sen marked on the chart and also the target area. That 50% fib level also is pretty close to the monthly support @ the Kumo. With price moving on some 1100 pips away from the Kijun the market is out of equilibrium and will want to pull back to the Kijun which will put the market back to equilibrium. A correction is why I see some downside before this pair eventually starts another bullish run. We may see a slight pullback on the daily time frame to a level near the Kumo before the pair takes off on that bearish run. If this happens I am in the trade. Have a great trading week and God bless!
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