Currently NJ is remaining one of more weaker pairs in terms of the cross pairs, and I'll be looking to take NZD/XXX pairs short following the recent news from the RBNZ regarding their lower floor target for interest rates. Two immediate confirmations include failed wick rejections just below 76 & a candle formation for yesterday (4/15). A third and fourth confirmations comes as this third drive has been rejected just under the 61.8% fib level just below 76. I will be looking to take NJ short, would PREFER a pullback, but am confident that 76 will hold true as shorter term ceiling.
Our entry will be determinate on how price reacts in the next few 2-hr candles of trading. I will consider entering a new position short at 75.5 if no pull back is seen. If price does pullback for NJ, I'll look to enter at a higher price point short at and around 76. This would add +40 pips to this short position in terms of profits.
My downside intra-day target for NJ is 75. I do believe that this pair could come lower than that, to a weekly target of 74.225 (+120 pips).
Stop-loss for this pair is up to interpretation, depending on how this pair reacts in the next few hours. If no pull-back is seen, stop-loss could be adjusted to just above 76. However, the ideal situation and the one that I want to see to be confident with this trade, would be a pullback to 75.83, where we can then set a stop-loss at 76.121.
At this point, the current and previous daily candles would create a doji/spinning top combination, which have 85% chances of a trend-reversal on the daily time frames.
I'll be on the sidelines as of now until I see further price action to the downside or after a pullback up to the 76 region.