Potential downside trend reversal on NZDJPY 4H

FX:NZDJPY   New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen
While we're still waiting for the EURGBP setup to trigger, one of the setups I'm also interested in is NZDJPY             on the 4H charts. This pair has been in a very long uptrend already and shows good price action: not too volatile and good swings. It's what we're looking for in a reversal setup: clean and predictable trending behaviour.

But recently, the price has been flattening off. What was previously a good and strong trend is getting weaker now, with RSI divergence on the past couple of swings and, currently, ranging behaviour between 82.700 and 82.200 as support. This support level is currently still holding, but there's a fair chance that if it manages to break, we will see more downside in this bearish reversal setup.

The past couple of candles indicates that this might very well happen. The price fails to make higher highs and a downwards sloping flat-bottomed triangle has been created. Although I'm still in waiting mode. Don't try to predict what the market will do, just react to the information that is given to you. I'm waiting for a momentum break a little below the 82.200 level: my price alert is at 82.150. If we see this break, further downside is definitely possible.

Potential fundamental factors are the positive signals on the Japan-European trade agreement that have been surfacing in the past couple of days. The uncertainty regarding the North-Korea situation could also be a trigger. If it would further escalate (which I very much hope will not happen), it would result in money flows to safe havens such as the JPY.

This and other setups are described on my website, where you can find my weekly forex outlook.

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