4xForecaster
Short

Hi-Prop Reversal @ 93.661 | $NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #elliottwave

FX:NZDJPY   New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen
738 12 10
Friends,

As you may recall, a recent predictive analysis/forecasting was released for this same $NZDJPY pair, pertaining to a higher timeframe (4-hour - See link below).

Fundamental analysis remains intact here regarding the $NZD.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

Looking at the internal activity of the aforementioned 4-Hour chart, I applied the predictive/forecasting model to define a high-probable level of reversal.

That level is currently defined as:

- TG-Hi = 93.661 - 23 DEC             2014.

If and once this level controls price, one shuold shift back to the higher timeframe (4-hour chart0, which remains the controlling frame for this pair at the moment,


FIBONACCI RELEVANCE:

A Fibonacci matrix is overlaid here, but lends no clear alignment with any forecast level of support. Instead, the structural level defined at 91.611 should offer a temporary support IF and once price adopts a bearish tack.


ELLIOTT WAVE RELEVANCE:

The dominant price action remains that of a complex internal zig-zags, one at a higher-degree (in purple) defined by a pending w-x-y-xx-(z) and a lesser-degree 1-2-3-4-(5) impulse, both of which hold a high-probability of corroborating with the predictive/forecasting model's target at 93.611.

This apical level would possibly complete a over-throw at Point-e, satisfying a bearish Ending Diagonal requirement.


OVERALL:

The original chart of interest rests at the 4-hour level. However, this 1-hour timefarme offers a chance to calibrate a reversal level in support of the predictive/forecasting analysis effected in the H4 level, which sees a dominant bearish control in price.


INVALIDATION:

The analysis should be considered invalid IF and once price commits to a level higher than Point-W = 93.968.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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$NZDJPY - 4-Hour Chart - Here is the high-timeframe chart in reference:

snapshot

(Source:
Late Entry: $NZD vs. $JPY: Predictive Analysis/Forecast #forex
)


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
ADDENDUM - A Wolfe Waves Pattern overlay with a 2-4 Line projection off of point-3 would offer the advanced pattern trader a guideline to define a upper geometric border. However, price action defining the WW (or the EW's ED for that matter) is NOT required to validate the 1-3 Line to define the 5th point (Point-e in the EW's ED, or Point-5 in WW).

For this reason, I would keep an eye on Point-4 of the WW (see chart below) as a conservative threshold defining whether price is done ascending


snapshot


- David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Wolfe Waves Pattern ("WW") Expanded:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
30 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$NZDJPY hit 93.661 as forecast; now expecting forecast 0.618 retrace to 91.611 next:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
05 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$NZDJPY nears 91.611 target; Interim recoil likely to 92.681 before landing on target:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY $USD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
Thanks David, I have benefited from your idea. I came out at 92 flat. Happy new year, Hamed.
+1 Reply
05 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$NZDJPY hit 91.611 target without rally to 92.681; L/T remains bearish per 4-Hour chart:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Thanks David, this idea worked brilliantly!
Do you think it would make sense to short again at current levels?
Reply
16 JAN 2015 - NOTE:

The M60 forecast completed - Moving the analysis back to the original H4 level - See link below for most recent tech-note:

-
Late Entry: $NZD vs. $JPY: Predictive Analysis/Forecast #forex


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
29 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$NZDJPY: Target Adjustment

High-prob. floor @ 85.242; Aggressive bears:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
30 JAN 2015 - Update: * * * TRADE COMPLETE * * *


From Twitter:
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$NZDJPY hit target @ 85.242 from inception on 22 Dec. @ 93.661:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ $USD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
30 JAN 201 - Update: * * * ALL Targets Hit * * *

From Twitter:
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$NZDJPY hit all forecast targets; Favors reversal:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
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